Who's Happy with Brexit Now ?

ozzyian

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Wasn't it Tony the Turds party that set up the electoral commission in 2001 to vet party donations??
Leaving the 2 major parties which are entirely dependent on and addicted to funding to come up with proper rules to make sure that donations are honest in their generation/intent and transparent probably isn't going to work.
 

Fruin

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The only real argument that I have heard for Brexit is that it would mean less cheap labour coming into the country and forcing wages down. This was the easy message to send out to the electorate and get them to put their mark in the Leave box, but it was also just another line of bullsh*t to ensure that the public voted for it. I don't know who exactly benefits from Brexit but there are those that have done and will continue to do so, and that is not the general populace of the UK.
As has been evidenced elsewhere, companies will simply look at other ways to improve profit through the use of cheap labour. They will look to other countries with low wages and offshore work, or, for more manual tasks bring the labour in from elsewhere by paying for work visas. It already happens all across engineering firms and other industries, by using cheap labour in places like India, the Phillipines and China. This work is managed from the UK but carried out in other countries. To my mind this is even worse as it means that when delivering these projects or services, the UK gov do not even get the tax from the workforce. It also means that UK companies do not train new starts in any sort of succession planning and we have all witnessed the problems that this brings when, suddenly, that foreign workforce is no longer accessible.
 

Safranfoer

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Maybe Brexit wasn't just about money, in a way a mildly, just like life?
I'd agree with that. But regardless of any benefits yet to be seen, Brexit has made us far less resilient, and financial resilience is part of that - and it couldn't have come at a worse time. There's a perfect storm of economic pressures right now - some caused by Brexit, most not - but regardless of the cause, the Brexit effect is that we are more vulnerable than we would have been. There's a global supply chain problem - the impact of that on the UK is worse because of leaving the customs union. There are global energy supply issues - the impact of that on the UK is worse because we left the Internal Energy Market.

No one could have foreseen the specific issues we have faced and are facing - but someone should have foreseen that **** happens, because it always does, and built resilience into our exit plans. I honestly find it baffling that there are just... no plans. We have ideologies and principles, but nothing to support them. When Thatcher closed the mines and manufacturing, they planned ahead, meticulously - it's all on public record. If you are going to make seismic changes to the way an economy works, you need to plan for it. The ideological shift was supported by impact planning. The way we have left the EU is gross negligence. You guys should be FURIOUS.
 
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Cascade

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The only real argument that I have heard for Brexit is that it would mean less cheap labour coming into the country and forcing wages down. This was the easy message to send out to the electorate and get them to put their mark in the Leave box, but it was also just another line of bullsh*t to ensure that the public voted for it. I don't know who exactly benefits from Brexit but there are those that have done and will continue to do so, and that is not the general populace of the UK.
As has been evidenced elsewhere, companies will simply look at other ways to improve profit through the use of cheap labour. They will look to other countries with low wages and offshore work, or, for more manual tasks bring the labour in from elsewhere by paying for work visas. It already happens all across engineering firms and other industries, by using cheap labour in places like India, the Phillipines and China. This work is managed from the UK but carried out in other countries. To my mind this is even worse as it means that when delivering these projects or services, the UK gov do not even get the tax from the workforce. It also means that UK companies do not train new starts in any sort of succession planning and we have all witnessed the problems that this brings when, suddenly, that foreign workforce is no longer accessible.
Possibly, but now we are free of the EU shackles, all UK public sector contracts can be let on the basis of labour and goods to be supplied by UK based staff and manufacturers.......depends if there is any appetite for restoring UK based manufacturing and engineering businesses.
 

Fruin

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Possibly, but now we are free of the EU shackles, all UK public sector contracts can be let on the basis of labour and goods to be supplied by UK based staff and manufacturers.......depends if there is any appetite for restoring UK based manufacturing and engineering businesses.
We never wanted to let any contracts to UK companies. Thatcher decimated manufacturing to the point that we struggle to build anything. I understand the reasons behind this as she knew it would be difficult to compete on a world stage in manufacturing, so, she pushed the whole of the UK down the services route, causing mass unemployment. If we are to go back into manufacturing, in order to compete with the lesser quality goods built in cheap labour markets, we would need to offer a quality above the rest. That will take decades to build as we have lost most of the skills and would have to train an entirely new workforce. Where will those skills come from?
If it was all about the EU, then why do we still allow other countries to dominate our energy markets? Why is it looking increasingly likely that the Amercians will dominate our healthcare sector? Why do we need American nukes?
We talk about the shackles of the EU, but the UK never objected to laws brought in by the EU and applauded most of them. It's no coincidence that the decision to leave coincided with the EU bringing in new laws on offshore tax havens.
 

Cascade

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We can never compete on price with China etc on low price goods but as I said, given the appetite, the UK could focus on the high tech end of the market........as you say if would need a massive training initiative to restore skills, not a quick fix by any stretch.
 

Safranfoer

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We can never compete on price with China etc on low price goods but as I said, given the appetite, the UK could focus on the high tech end of the market........as you say if would need a massive training initiative to restore skills, not a quick fix by any stretch.
China dominates in tech, too. I work with two advanced British tech developers, but they’re selling their products to foreign businesses because we don’t have the infrastructure to manufacture here. As an example, one of my clients has been developing a tech solution for 15 years, funded by the UK government in partnership with one of our universities. Homegrown talent, homegrown world-changing tech - just sold to a German manufacturer. As you observe, we need to develop the capacity to deliver this here but that client spent 15 years with pretty much unlimited cash behind them, and it still wasn’t scaleable or viable for them, they have made no money in that time and selling to a foreign firm was the only way to balance the books, stop leaning on the government and actually make a profit. Their next product is in a different sector and will almost certainly go the same way. It’s chicken and egg - we need the money to develop the capacity, we need the capacity to earn the money. Not an easy nut to crack - but exciting.
 

Fruin

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No desire from Westminster to change this. A strong desire from the Scottish Government to pursue excellence in tech and life sciences but apparently people don't want to vote for that.
 

ozzyian

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I'd agree with that. But regardless of any benefits yet to be seen, Brexit has made us far less resilient, and financial resilience is part of that - and it couldn't have come at a worse time. There's a perfect storm of economic pressures right now - some caused by Brexit, most not - but regardless of the cause, the Brexit effect is that we are more vulnerable than we would have been. There's a global supply chain problem - the impact of that on the UK is worse because of leaving the customs union. There are global energy supply issues - the impact of that on the UK is worse because we left the Internal Energy Market.

No one could have foreseen the specific issues we have faced and are facing - but someone should have foreseen that **** happens, because it always does, and built resilience into our exit plans. I honestly find it baffling that there are just... no plans. We have ideologies and principles, but nothing to support them. When Thatcher closed the mines and manufacturing, they planned ahead, meticulously - it's all on public record. If you are going to make seismic changes to the way an economy works, you need to plan for it. The ideological shift was supported by impact planning. The way we have left the EU is gross negligence. You guys should be FURIOUS.

That's highly debateable. The Greeks, Portugese and Italians would have traded their first borns to have evaded central fiscal control 10 years ago, primarily that - amongst other EU organised foul ups - doomed their youth and forced them into taking full advantage of open borders. Just as well for a 20 yr old if your economy is entirely shagged and no real means for your govt to change it.

I would rather have full sovereign fiscal control at times like these. A lot of people I know felt it was the strongest reason to avoid increased integration as per the central EU objective.

Time will tell whether that is correct but the sh!t will happen argument was put forward by brexit leaners right here on this fishing forum as a reason to resist the economic restrictions of the EU. Personally I always thought that the next big problem after the gfc was likely Chinese economic policy/outcomes followed in 2nd place by the dawning of the realisation that Western student debt was a bigger problem than property debt. Of course it's just as likely that we will just bounce from one disaster to the next with no real benefit and no real harm done by the gnomes. What each individual thinks in this regard is no more than ideology, there's no basis for accurate prediction. Yours happens to be the grauniad one :)
 
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Safranfoer

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That's highly debateable. The Greeks, Portugese and Italians would have traded their first borns to have evaded central fiscal control 10 years ago, primarily that - amongst other EU organised foul ups - doomed their youth and forced them into taking full advantage of open borders. Just as well for a 20 yr old if your economy is entirely shagged and no real means for your govt to change it.

I would rather have full sovereign fiscal control at times like these. A lot of people I know felt it was the strongest reason to avoid increased integration as per the central EU objective.

Time will tell whether that is correct but the sh!t will happen argument was put forward by brexit leaners right here on this fishing forum as a reason to resist the economic restrictions of the EU. Personally I always thought that the next big problem after the gfc was likely Chinese economic policy/outcomes followed in 2nd place by the dawning of the realisation that Western student debt was a bigger problem than property debt. Of course it's just as likely that we will just bounce from one disaster to the next with no real benefit and no real harm done by the gnomes. What each individual thinks in this regard is no more than ideology, there's no basis for accurate prediction. Yours happens to be the grauniad one :)
The fact that there was no plan to mitigate against even the very short term impact isn't Guardian-esque rhetoric and ideology. You plan for GOOD disruption. There are loads of things we are introducing in our business that will be absolutely brilliant for us in the long-term, but as they will also involve short-term disruption, we are planning for them and putting stuff in place to mitigate, either through choosing our timing or installing alternative back up systems to tide us over. It seems so fundamental to me that I can't see any defence of the absence as anything other than wilful ignorance of facts that don't serve preconceived feelings.

I also don't think it's all that debatable that Brexit has made us less resilient to global goings on, now. It's not about how Greece would have felt 10 years ago - that's ideology again. I could throw historical points back at you where being a member of the EU has greatly benefited us or another country, and round and round we go. The point it, Brexit has made us less resilient today.

That's not a reason to have remained. But it is a reason to have planned. I don't remember anyone using sh!t will happen as a reason to leave the EU. I remember being told that the EU would cause said sh!t, but not that leaving would make us more resilient in the event of global shenanigans. If you're right though, and that was a strong reason to leave the EU, I would argue again that those that voted Leave should be furious, because while it was by no means inevitable that we would be in a weaker position, we are, because we didn't plan our exit or mitigate against its effects.

It's a nuanced argument and people don't like nuance - they like to characterise people as a REMOANER or a BREXITER. But - I'll say it again. Our current lack of resilience isn't a result of Brexit. It wasn't caused by Brexit. It was caused by the implementation of it. And the lack of resilience isn't imagined - it can be evidenced in how we are coping with supply chain issues and energy problems, vs our neighbours. We have made ourselves weaker through lack of contingency - oh, and alienating ourselves needlessly with bombastic rhetoric. We have full fiscal control, sure, but it's not helping us manage the problems we have, so it's as useful as our blue passports. Although I suppose we can now nationalise all the failing things to build resilience there. We have more control to be more socialist?
 

tenet

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It would appear that our near neighbours also have an energy crisis.

All the critics of the government seem to think that we haven't had a major pandemic these past 20 months with, quite rightly, ministers somewhat preoccupied in handling that. Unemployment is low, job vacancies are up and certainly in my neck of the woods there doesn't appear to be a supply crisis with yet again shelves in Sainsbury's adequately stocked when I visited this morning to stock up on wine. Passed 3 petrol stations and all 3 seemed to be functioning normally without any queues.
What I do think will undermine the government in due course is this headlong rush to be carbon neutral. The cat will really be out of the bag when the cost of converting suburbia to air sourced heat pumps and forcing folk into battery powered cars without proper infrastructure.
 

ozzyian

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You've got a short memory. On the brexit thread you were telling us that it would be disastrous, quite a few of us were saying it wouldn't - compared to other potential threats. Other than Owen Jones not being able to get his free range quinoa and all the fun caused by bog roll hoarders running out to buy petrol just remind me what ACTUAL problems brexit has caused. Then compare them to a lost generation of opportunities for 30 million young in Europe (indisputably caused by the EU) Thats all. Not that I'd want to pitch one against the other, it's just illustrative of the narrative.

You said 'brexit has made us more vulnerable' in post 104. In real terms I doubt it, neither in the short medium or long term, I don't think you have any basis for that statement.
 
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Safranfoer

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You've got a short memory. On the brexit thread you were telling us that it would be disastrous, quite a few of us were saying it wouldn't - compared to other potential threats. Other than Owen Jones not being able to get his free range quinoa and all the fun caused by bog roll hoarders running out to buy petrol just remind me what ACTUAL problems brexit has caused. Then compare them to a lost generation of opportunities for 30 million young in Europe (indisputably caused by the EU) Thats all. Not that I'd want to pitch one against the other, it's just illustrative of the narrative.

You said 'brexit has made us more vulnerable' in post 104. In real terms I doubt it, neither in the short medium or long term, I don't think you have any basis for that statement.
Again. Nuance. So I’ll just say the important part. For the third time? Fourth? Brexit hasn’t caused the bad things. It has made us less able to deal with them. It’s not about quinoa and loo roll. It’s about manufacturing supply chains - already disrupted, being further disrupted by our withdrawal from the customs Union. It’s about everyone having an energy crisis, but our withdrawal from the EU energy scheme meaning we are harder hit. That’s two areas where we have been rendered more vulnerable to external events because of Brexit.

That’s before you get on to the actual problems - we cut off our supply of migrant labour BEFORE building our own skilled workforce that can slaughter the animals, drive the lorries, pick the fruit, veg and flowers, process the meat, work in the hotels and restaurants… It’ll take a good few years to train into many of those vacancies - how many businesses will go to the wall? Collateral damage is one thing - but you plan for it, and mitigate against it. You’re trying to reduce a complex picture to lazy stereotypes, and you’ll never convince me that it was a good idea to kick out the skilled labour before we had a plan to replace it. That just makes no sense. To be clear, it doesn’t mean we should remain. Just that we exited under the leadership of absolute donkeys.
 

Safranfoer

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It would appear that our near neighbours also have an energy crisis.

All the critics of the government seem to think that we haven't had a major pandemic these past 20 months with, quite rightly, ministers somewhat preoccupied in handling that. Unemployment is low, job vacancies are up and certainly in my neck of the woods there doesn't appear to be a supply crisis with yet again shelves in Sainsbury's adequately stocked when I visited this morning to stock up on wine. Passed 3 petrol stations and all 3 seemed to be functioning normally without any queues.
What I do think will undermine the government in due course is this headlong rush to be carbon neutral. The cat will really be out of the bag when the cost of converting suburbia to air sourced heat pumps and forcing folk into battery powered cars without proper infrastructure.
Yup. Our neighbours have the same problems we have. They also had a pandemic to deal with and be preoccupied by. They’re also recovering from said pandemic faster and don’t have the army delivering their petrol and their leaders vowing to ‘save Christmas!’ There are fewer gaps on their shelves - regardless of your anecdotal evidence, I’m going to listen to the retailers themselves on that one - and they are sharing the impact of things like the driver shortage through cabotage. They are more resilient to external factors than we are - which makes sense. Stronger, together, and all that. Without an alternative plan for resilience outside of any such alliance - because there are more ways to be resilient than through relationships like the EU - but without that, without anything… we have been dealt the same hand but we will be hit harder IMO. But let’s see. It’s still only the early days of what’s apparently the end of the world… pandemic into global energy crisis…? Really?!
 

ozzyian

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Again. Nuance. So I’ll just say the important part. For the third time? Fourth? Brexit hasn’t caused the bad things. It has made us less able to deal with them. It’s not about quinoa and loo roll. It’s about manufacturing supply chains - already disrupted, being further disrupted by our withdrawal from the customs Union. It’s about everyone having an energy crisis, but our withdrawal from the EU energy scheme meaning we are harder hit. That’s two areas where we have been rendered more vulnerable to external events because of Brexit.

That’s before you get on to the actual problems - we cut off our supply of migrant labour BEFORE building our own skilled workforce that can slaughter the animals, drive the lorries, pick the fruit, veg and flowers, process the meat, work in the hotels and restaurants… It’ll take a good few years to train into many of those vacancies - how many businesses will go to the wall? Collateral damage is one thing - but you plan for it, and mitigate against it. You’re trying to reduce a complex picture to lazy stereotypes, and you’ll never convince me that it was a good idea to kick out the skilled labour before we had a plan to replace it. That just makes no sense. To be clear, it doesn’t mean we should remain. Just that we exited under the leadership of absolute donkeys

So we should be furious about covid problems that have been nothing to do with brexit but may or may not (mostly not according to moderate commentators) be impacted by the unavailability of cheap labour due specifically to brexit after the covid era ends? Honestly, turn off twitter, it's nfg.
 

Safranfoer

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So we should be furious about covid problems that have been nothing to do with brexit but may or may not (mostly not according to moderate commentators) be impacted by the unavailability of cheap labour due specifically to brexit after the covid era ends? Honestly, turn off twitter, it's nfg.
No. People that voted leave should be furious that the government has no plan to implement it successfully or mitigate against its short and mid term impacts and prevent/reduce entirely avoidable hardship for businesses and therefore all of us. Stop twisting and writhing and resorting to personal digs.
 

Safranfoer

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Specifically I disagree with this. I don't think it has done anything of the sort and I actually suspect the opposite, though I may be a little longer term than today.

Well happily you’ll have lots of metrics to be able to prove me wrong then - hard ones vs comparable nations, like growth, productivity, inflation, number of businesses going under, as well as softer ones like food and fuel shortages. We are now in quantifiable territory so it should become apparent whether planning for Brexit was necessary or not.
 

Birkin

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When I worked in heavy engineering we produced a product that 40/50/60/70/80 years later are still in operation. After the engineering sector of this country was decimated by cheap imports from Japan, yes Japan, and a certain country that was re equiped after the second world war with the most up to date machinery our engineering sector went to the wall. Along came Maggie with her plan to make us a services economy and closed down the coal, steel and any other manufacturing set up that was a threat to the tory party of the day. I think Safi you need to go to the towns that suffered the decimation that this caused with NO plan to replace jobs lost in these towns.
Question do you really think that if we still had access to cheap labour our users of said cheap labour would do the retraining of our workforce. I think not.
As a PS the machinery the company I worked for made is now made in two countries in the world one being China and the other a country we helped to rebuild.
 

ozzyian

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No. People that voted leave should be furious that the government has no plan to implement it successfully or mitigate against its short and mid term impacts and prevent/reduce entirely avoidable hardship for businesses and therefore all of us. Stop twisting and writhing and resorting to personal digs.


So far my only experience of business hardship is the damage done to UK tourism by noisy self obsessed remoaners talking utter rubbish. Like I reminded you earlier do you not remember 'your cards won't work in the atms' and 'planes won't be allowed in UK airspace' etc etc. So I don't really listen to the smartarse left and remoaner wisdom. My point is not to be evasive or insulting but quite seriously I think you give this line of argument far too much credence. It has it's place but it's not the only plausible line of debate to consider!
 

ozzyian

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Well happily you’ll have lots of metrics to be able to prove me wrong then - hard ones vs comparable nations, like growth, productivity, inflation, number of businesses going under, as well as softer ones like food and fuel shortages. We are now in quantifiable territory so it should become apparent whether planning for Brexit was necessary or not.

True, and I assure you it cannot come soon enough as I have a German friend who I have had to support for 2 years because his bank card doesn't work any more and he can't go home because Lufthansa are no longer permitted by international aviation law from flying to the UK.
 

sneakypeter

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Brexit,And Covid, the perfect storm to exaggerate scenarios, coupled with media reporting of issues that were not really issues, leads us to the mess we are now in. Fuel supply was not an issue, media hype just propelled a non issue, to headline news, as I ,am sure the media will do the same to any other apparent supply issues in the run up to Christmas! Blame the media, the news or non news are taken as gospel by many, jumpy reactions, post the covid low points, survivalist mentallity!!!!
 

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It was not a throw away remark either ... I have negotiated contracts with European entites, the biggest of which was worth well over £1Bn and when you get to that level, there is not much differenc between £1Bn and £100Bn.
Wowzers no way lol.
Tell you what Brexit aside. I don’t think I’d ever heard of talk of Trillions prior to the Pandemic?
Hard to know with Joe Biden as he’s had so many gaffs but the other week, when being asked about his Tax plans he remarked that “Trillionaires and Billionaires have never had it so good”.
Re Brexit and our democracy it does make you wonder if some folk actually have the mental capacity to know what they’re actually voting for?
I can only speak for myself but around that time I got invited into a neighbours house and it just totally freaked me out, with some of the rhetoric they were coming out with? As if Brexit was all about supporting that BNP guy, misguided racism and having a Union Jack on the wall.
I don’t vote as I just refuse to be pigeonholed into Holding views that ain’t mine.
 
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