tweed autumn run

[marty31]

the tweedbeats editorial mentions that the Paxton netting station, now this year only used by the tweed foundation for scientific purposes, netted 6-7 times in September-October and never caught 1 salmon in perfect water conditions, how unbelievably scary is that? no wonder the old crew threw the towel in at the end of last year

 

[Ben-Macdui]

the tweedbeats editorial mentions that the Paxton netting station, now this year only used by the tweed foundation for scientific purposes, netted 6-7 times in September-October and never caught 1 salmon in perfect water conditions, how unbelievably scary is that? no wonder the old crew threw the towel in at the end of last year

Not just the tweed missing a autumn run though it is all east coast rivers, where did they go

 

[Loxie]

Not just the tweed missing a autumn run though it is all east coast rivers, where did they go

I have think it's universal. No Autumn run here either and grilse were incredibly patchy. Spring run was non existent too!

 

[Loxie]

There is two options; either we are seeing a switch back to spring runs or we are fecked. We will know in the next decade.

 

[Chicharito]

the tweedbeats editorial mentions that the Paxton netting station, now this year only used by the tweed foundation for scientific purposes, netted 6-7 times in September-October and never caught 1 salmon in perfect water conditions, how unbelievably scary is that? no wonder the old crew threw the towel in at the end of last year

It's poor reading and it underlines what you have been saying for weeks.
I have only fished the bottom Tweed for a few years but I have seen a dramatic decrease in fish this Autumn. I only wish that I could say that I have seen a dramatic increase in Spring fish, but I can't.
I have put quite a few hours in this season and my total this season from 2 bottom Tweed beats is 2 salmon and 1 sea trout, also lost 3 fish as well.
OK they are not the most prolific beats, but it is poor return for my efforts.

https://www.tweedbeats.com/news/13_november_2016_news_editorial

 

[Ben-Macdui]

There is two options; either we are seeing a switch back to spring runs or we are fecked. We will know in the next decade.

I hope it is a return to large spring runs but can a return to spring runs explain the total collapse in the Autumn runs we are seeing now.

 

[westie4566]

There is two options; either we are seeing a switch back to spring runs or we are fecked. We will know in the next decade.

I pray that it's the former rather than the latter, Loxie.

Sadly spring runs seem to be on the decline up here too. Just look at what's happened to the Dee (Aberdeenshire) in the past few years.

I knowI've been banging on about my fears for a few years now....but it does now seem that one river after another is being affected.

Time will tell, so fingers crossed!!

 

[Loxie]

I hope it is a return to large spring runs but can a return to spring runs explain the total collapse in the Autumn runs we are seeing now.

God knows. The last time, 120 years ago, the Autumn run just disappeared and over a period of 20 years the spring run became dominant. There were hard times between the two. Nothing is equal and the variables are huge. However there are others who believe the changeover is much quicker, and there are those that believe spring and Autumn runs are genetically seperate and run timings have no cycle. The honest answer is no one has anything other than a guess.

My own view, as worthless as anyone else's, is that run timings are not genetic. My gut feeling is that we will have poor to very poor spring and Autumn fishing and good to very good summer fishing, water dependent, for a few years, then spring fishing will be excellent and Autumn fishing a memory again for 50 years. Sadly there is nothing to suggest I might be right.

 

[fly guy]

Same applies in the far NW Highlands......Me thinks that "sustainable organic treats" may well be off the menu For all those that still believe we have never had it so good I suspect the feel good factor may well be in decline.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong.................

 

[westie4566]

God knows. The last time, 120 years ago, the Autumn run just disappeared and over a period of 20 years the spring run became dominant. There were hard times between the two. Nothing is equal and the variables are huge. However there are others who believe the changeover is much quicker, and there are those that believe spring and Autumn runs are genetically seperate and run timings have no cycle. The honest answer is no one has anything other than a guess.

My own view, as worthless as anyone else's, is that run timings are not genetic. My gut feeling is that we will have poor to very poor spring and Autumn fishing and good to very good summer fishing, water dependent, for a few years, then spring fishing will be excellent and Autumn fishing a memory again for 50 years. Sadly there is nothing to suggest I might be right.

I enjoy your optimism Loxie, although even 20 years will see me in my seventies and probably well past my best!

I going to put this out there once again.

The much maligned (on this forum) conservation bodies have been trying to warn us for years about declining runs.

I'm not about to say they are right or wrong, however certain evidence seem to point in their direction.

Never mind, I'm ever the optimist! This month I'll be parting with a fair old wedge for next years fishing and already have the first two spring Tay trips sorted!

I know I've been accused of being a 'doomer and gloomer' If that were really the case, I'd have hung up my rods a few seasons ago!

 

[Ben-Macdui]

God knows. The last time, 120 years ago, the Autumn run just disappeared and over a period of 20 years the spring run became dominant. There were hard times between the two. Nothing is equal and the variables are huge. However there are others who believe the changeover is much quicker, and there are those that believe spring and Autumn runs are genetically seperate and run timings have no cycle. The honest answer is no one has anything other than a guess.

My own view, as worthless as anyone else's, is that run timings are not genetic. My gut feeling is that we will have poor to very poor spring and Autumn fishing and good to very good summer fishing, water dependent, for a few years, then spring fishing will be excellent and Autumn fishing a memory again for 50 years. Sadly there is nothing to suggest I might be right.

I would tend to agree about the runs coming earlier based on what i seen in 2015 when i was lucky enough to see fish running on a couple occasions.

This year however was pathetic but there did seen to be a lot of grilse in the Don not when you would expect them of course only when they were stale and kippered .

 

[Hemmy]

Come on guys get it sorted NOW.........Westie is making me feel old and I cannot wait

 

[marty31]

looking at our catch book we only had one salmon for September, admittedly there was not much effort with some days nobody there, the opposite bank in September fishes fully booked from dawn to dusk with full time gillie and had 12 (5ya) 63 and October 2 (5ya) 42 not good, but on bottom tweed the 5ya is dragged down with high water years, this year was perfect water conditions so, the catch should have far exceeded the 5ya, the fish that were caught were a lot smaller than usual, not what would be normally classed as proper autumn salmon, this is year 2 of this trend you would nearly think something had scooped the whole east coast autumn run up and left next door to nothing, one cannot help wonder, whats next round the corner

 

[MCXFisher]

For what it's worth:

1. Shift to Spring Runs? The change from spring to autumn on the Deveron happened very suddenly in the late 1960s, but there were no prior indications or trends. Nobody knows why it happened, and the facts only became plain in retrospect after 10 years or so. At this stage there isn't enough evidence to support the idea of a wholesale change, but it could yet emerge: we won't know until its happened.

2. It's not Bad Everywhere. Across the north east of England the salmon population appears to be increasing rapidly, not only in numbers, but also in spread through the re-population of rivers from which they have been absent, in some cases, for more than 150 years. Of course this growth is from a low baseline, but if you can watch 30 fish going over a weir in one minute there are clearly good numbers about. This may question the notion that there's something wrong at the whole population level.

3. There are Bigger Things Afoot. There are some strange things going on with sea fish populations, and locations etc. For example, blue fin tuna are turning up in UK inshore waters in numbers not seen since the 1930s, which suggests a growth in their prey species' numbers and a shift in their ranges. There's quite a lot of scientific (and not so scientific) literature about relating to fish and prey species population cycles, with the latter closely connected to oceanic temperatures. We can't rule out the current condition of salmon runs in eastern Scotland being part of a coincidence of much bigger cycles and non-cyclical changes, but I have no better idea than anyone else. We should, however, bear in mind that high levels of variability and boom and bust are quite common in the fish world.

4. Facts. What are the counters telling us on the rivers that have them?

5. I'll steer clear of the weather as it only upsets people.

 

[marty31]

For what it's worth:



2. It's not Bad Everywhere. Across the north east of England the salmon population appears to be increasing rapidly, not only in numbers, but also in spread through the re-population of rivers from which they have been absent, in some cases, for more than 150 years. Of course this growth is from a low baseline, but if you can watch 30 fish going over a weir in one minute there are clearly good numbers about. This may question the notion that there's something wrong at the whole population level.

I think you are referring to historically polluted rivers that have been cleaned up, and restocked, I live in the north east and as a young man fished the aln, and coquet in those days they had a good spring, summer and backend run, now both rivers are next door to being devoid of fish, and you would be lucky to see 30 fish in a season never mind one minute

 

[Ben-Macdui]

For what it's worth:

1. Shift to Spring Runs? The change from spring to autumn on the Deveron happened very suddenly in the late 1960s, but there were no prior indications or trends. Nobody knows why it happened, and the facts only became plain in retrospect after 10 years or so. At this stage there isn't enough evidence to support the idea of a wholesale change, but it could yet emerge: we won't know until its happened.

2. It's not Bad Everywhere. Across the north east of England the salmon population appears to be increasing rapidly, not only in numbers, but also in spread through the re-population of rivers from which they have been absent, in some cases, for more than 150 years. Of course this growth is from a low baseline, but if you can watch 30 fish going over a weir in one minute there are clearly good numbers about. This may question the notion that there's something wrong at the whole population level.

3. There are Bigger Things Afoot. There are some strange things going on with sea fish populations, and locations etc. For example, blue fin tuna are turning up in UK inshore waters in numbers not seen since the 1930s, which suggests a growth in their prey species' numbers and a shift in their ranges. There's quite a lot of scientific (and not so scientific) literature about relating to fish and prey species population cycles, with the latter closely connected to oceanic temperatures. We can't rule out the current condition of salmon runs in eastern Scotland being part of a coincidence of much bigger cycles and non-cyclical changes, but I have no better idea than anyone else. We should, however, bear in mind that high levels of variability and boom and bust are quite common in the fish world.

4. Facts. What are the counters telling us on the rivers that have them?

5. I'll steer clear of the weather as it only upsets people.

4. Facts. What are the counters telling us on the rivers that have them?
That they only put counters on rivers with a high Salmon run so when its poor it don't look so bad

 

[westie4566]

For what it's worth:

1. Shift to Spring Runs? The change from spring to autumn on the Deveron happened very suddenly in the late 1960s, but there were no prior indications or trends. Nobody knows why it happened, and the facts only became plain in retrospect after 10 years or so. At this stage there isn't enough evidence to support the idea of a wholesale change, but it could yet emerge: we won't know until its happened.

2. It's not Bad Everywhere. Across the north east of England the salmon population appears to be increasing rapidly, not only in numbers, but also in spread through the re-population of rivers from which they have been absent, in some cases, for more than 150 years. Of course this growth is from a low baseline, but if you can watch 30 fish going over a weir in one minute there are clearly good numbers about. This may question the notion that there's something wrong at the whole population level.

3. There are Bigger Things Afoot. There are some strange things going on with sea fish populations, and locations etc. For example, blue fin tuna are turning up in UK inshore waters in numbers not seen since the 1930s, which suggests a growth in their prey species' numbers and a shift in their ranges. There's quite a lot of scientific (and not so scientific) literature about relating to fish and prey species population cycles, with the latter closely connected to oceanic temperatures. We can't rule out the current condition of salmon runs in eastern Scotland being part of a coincidence of much bigger cycles and non-cyclical changes, but I have no better idea than anyone else. We should, however, bear in mind that high levels of variability and boom and bust are quite common in the fish world.

4. Facts. What are the counters telling us on the rivers that have them?

5. I'll steer clear of the weather as it only upsets people.

Deleted post.

 

[MCXFisher]

I think you are referring to historically polluted rivers that have been cleaned up, and restocked

Marty,

you're absolutely correct that many have been cleaned up, although in most cases that process owed more to the de-industrialisation of the 80s and 90s and the privatisation of the water industry (removing Crown Immunity from their misdeeds) than any specific improvement works.

The only river with a major re-stocking programme has been the Tyne, where the hatchery replaced the spawning area lost to Keilder. The extent to which the hatchery contributed to the growth in the Tyne's salmon population is impossible to assess. Elsewhere, there's a very small hatchery operation on the Ure, which replaces the spawning area of the River Burn lost to the Alston dam, but its overall effect (from only 20,000 smolts annually) is very small. The recovery of the Ure started well before the hatchery came into operation. I'm not aware of any other restocking operations: the expansion of salmon into the Wharfe, Swale, Don and Trent system appears to be an entirely natural process.

The loss of salmon from the Aln and Coquet is a tragedy (I have relatives in the area). In looking for an explanation my first instinct would be look at farming practices, which have been responsible for so much damage to salmon stocks in the south west of England.

 

[FaughanPurple]

There is two options; either we are seeing a switch back to spring runs or we are fecked. We will know in the next decade.

Within the last 10 years, fish have run early, late and on time

A decade ago were they not suggesting that it was switching to an Autumn cycle from a previous Spring cycle and it would take decades to know for sure.... now it's going back!?

What do we really know at all? other than no matter when or where they run, there isn't the numbers there were 20 years ago and their runs were less than 20 yrs before that etc....

 

[lax]

the tweedbeats editorial mentions that the Paxton netting station, now this year only used by the tweed foundation for scientific purposes, netted 6-7 times in September-October and never caught 1 salmon in perfect water conditions, how unbelievably scary is that? no wonder the old crew threw the towel in at the end of last year

I wouldn't look too much into this. I was informed this weekend that the netting done in very unfavourable conditions in daylight only, and only under instructions off the nets man (due to ill health) by mainly guys working for the tweed foundation, with very little experience..
That's the polite way of repeating how it was explained to me!

 

[Jim610]

As said further up this thread both grilse and autumn runs seem to be affected in quite a few of the NE rivers.

I don't have any stats (stats, damned stats and lies) to back up this gut feeling but a few years ago did we not have a couple of consecutive years with really bad floods at spawning time?

Could this decline simply be a result of a couple of years of very poor breeding in addition to everything else these creatures have to put up with?

Just a thought, I am in no way saying I am right.

Jim

 

[Loxie]

Marty,

you're absolutely correct that many have been cleaned up, although in most cases that process owed more to the de-industrialisation of the 80s and 90s and the privatisation of the water industry (removing Crown Immunity from their misdeeds) than any specific improvement works.

The only river with a major re-stocking programme has been the Tyne, where the hatchery replaced the spawning area lost to Keilder. The extent to which the hatchery contributed to the growth in the Tyne's salmon population is impossible to assess. Elsewhere, there's a very small hatchery operation on the Ure, which replaces the spawning area of the River Burn lost to the Alston dam, but its overall effect (from only 20,000 smolts annually) is very small. The recovery of the Ure started well before the hatchery came into operation. I'm not aware of any other restocking operations: the expansion of salmon into the Wharfe, Swale, Don and Trent system appears to be an entirely natural process.

The loss of salmon from the Aln and Coquet is a tragedy (I have relatives in the area). In looking for an explanation my first instinct would be look at farming practices, which have been responsible for so much damage to salmon stocks in the south west of England.

There was a very detailed investigation in to just that (Milner et al, 2004) which was not popular with the then hatchery manager! They carried out a pretty extensive tagging of released parr then looked at recaptures to predict the total number of adults returning from these parr. Bearing in mind the usual issues with this kind of research: the effect of the tag and uncertain recapture rates on the one side and the selection of the very best of the crop each year for tagging on the other the figure they arrived at, 0.3%, was disappointing to say the least. The report concluded that in the early stages of the recovery the hatchery had a significant effect in speeding up the natural process but in later stages had no measurable impact on stocks. It should also be remembered that Kielder was not designed to be run as a stock enhancement hatchery but a mitigation hatchery to replace spawning and juvenile rearing habitat lost when the reservoir was flooded. I ought to point out that the figure was heavily, and bitterly, disputed by Peter Gray: I well remember one meeting I attended with him and the EA which was particularly acrimonious. He claimed the return figure was between 10 and 15% but could offer no evidence to support this. I believe he felt he was being undermined deliberately by the EA. The report from MSS in the spring of last year has provided some new evidence on the survival rates of stocked smolts which rather vindicates Milner. Of 90,000+ smolts stocked in to 4 Scottish rivers over a twenty year period less than 50 were recaptured by angling as adults. During the same period wild smolts were also tagged and routinely returned in rates 10 times higher and more than reared ones.

 

[Jonathan]

Marty,
I'm not aware of any other restocking operations: the expansion of salmon into the Wharfe, Swale, Don and Trent system appears to be an entirely natural process.

The Trent system was stocked, mainly in the Dove. The EA Salmonid & Freshwater Fisheries Statistics report details stocking; and in 2013 has stocking in the Dove, though later reports do not. No mention of stocking on the other rivers mentioned and over the Pennines the Mersey is another apparently unstocked example of expansion into previously polluted environment.

 

[MCXFisher]

The Trent system was stocked, mainly in the Dove. The EA Salmonid & Freshwater Fisheries Statistics report details stocking; and in 2013 has stocking in the Dove, though later reports do not. No mention of stocking on the other rivers mentioned and over the Pennines the Mersey is another apparently unstocked example of expansion into previously polluted environment.

Thank you for the information on the Dove of which I was unaware. Apparently last year a large salmon was caught in its upper reaches (about 130 miles from the sea) by someone fishing for grayling. History doesn't relate whether this was a stocked fish.

 

[JRP39]

Some fresh fish running the weir at Hexham on the Tyne today, better late than never! Would have thought the Tweed might get a few as well.