Scottish politics

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Gannochy

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Again SOS, look at other countries with less to offer than Scotland, that are of a similar size population wise and ask yourself why they do better than us. Now, what is the difference between countries like Ireland, Denmark, Norway and Scotland? What could it be?
Look no further than the price of a pint in Denmark and Norway. Not sure Ireland does that well.
 

Fruin

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Look no further than the price of a pint in Denmark and Norway. Not sure Ireland does that well.
Yes, i've paid the crazy prices for a pint in Norway! That said, they have a better standard of living overall and strangely a lot of things are similarly priced to the UK, such as much of their fishing.
 

ozzyian

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I suggest you look up comparable deficits of other countries, first asking yourself how much of a problem a deficit is. Then ask yourself why Scotland actually has a deficit.
You need to stop this Fruin :)

One answer is 'an awful lot worse if the interest rate goes up, the capacity to repay debt decreases and the only entities buying Scottish bonds have an address in Beijing'

You guys really need to start thinking through implications. There is little ambiguity in understanding the concepts that form the basis of sovereign economics.

Your posts are cult like in their consistent denial to look at the facts, whether they be in regard to joining the EU or accepting the economic path following independence. You are being played by the party with the oldest trick in the book - nationalism and grievance. There's no economic miracle, there's no riches hiding in the landscape, there's no EU riding in to help you. All there is is the stoking of the grievance for the benefit of the party.
 
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Grassy_Knollington

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Again SOS, look at other countries with less to offer than Scotland, that are of a similar size population wise and ask yourself why they do better than us. Now, what is the difference between countries like Ireland, Denmark, Norway and Scotland? What could it be?

1. None of those countries went through the Industrial revolution in the same way as the U.K. None of those countries have large, urban populations, a legacy of de industrialisation.

2. Norway especially skipped straight from largely agrarian society to post industrial, via huge influx of cash from oil.

3. Ireland stood still for 70 years as an agrarian nation, until they hit on the genius Idea of becoming a tax haven. Good on them, if the game is globalisation, they are playing a blinder, as long as it lasts.

4. Denmark is and always has been tightly integrated to the German economy.

5. These countries consume less and save more

6. These countries have very different social, cultural and geographic histories over handreds, in some cases thousands of years.

Be honest, Independent Scotland won’t be starting at the same place those nations did.

Independent Scotland won’t turn into a tartan facsimile of any of those nations either. Not in any short timeframe. There isn’t a hope in hell.

Of course being independent isn’t just about economics and there are other (more important) considerations.

Why not just admit the likely risks and be honest about it, instead of pretending everything is going to be rosey?

It’s a bit like the EU situation.

The U.K. is experiencing the inevitable frictions caused by separation of the U.K. from the Single Market. Scotland is integrated into the U.K. in a way that the Eurocrats could only dream of, yet we are supposed to believe that separation from the U.K. is going to be frictionless?

🤣🤣😂🤣🤞🤣
 

ozzyian

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Yes, but tax makes their eyes bleed.
Other than crap disposable furniture the Scandinavians are known for their ability to operate a pretty prudent economic regime whilst providing high levels of State spending. We all know this, its why a round of beers needs a bank loan and why other taxation is at levels considered unacceptable in pretty much every other region or country.

These are Scandinavian characteristics, they have a unique identity, a characterisation that makes them what they are. It is not that they are just a 'better Britain' where miracles happen in the same way that Chad isn't a 'worse Britain' where disasters happen. Thinking that Scottish people will become just like Norwegians is just the snp propaganda.

Anyway, lets say I'm wrong. Lets say that the Scottish people (financiers, travellers, entrepreneurs that they are) change everything and become happy just like Norwegians to pay out an average of 15k + in tax per year. Lets just say it :)

So, answers on the back of a beermat please. How long before the miracle occurs? How long for the cultural change, how much excess rainwater has to be exported, how many sides of healthy Scottish salmon? Even if the educated kids don't f***k off to secure their actual future elsewhere, even if the capital doesn't flow straight out the back door to somewhere safer even if etc etc, how long?

I'm prepared to accept it might work out, but I'm an optimist and a bit of a gambler with not much to lose. But I suspect no one here will be around long enough to see any benefit - not by a long chalk, and in no way is it a certainty anyway. The costs are too high (dead people in the interim high) anyone thinking rationally can see this, anyone thinking emotionally can't. Simple really.
 
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Fruin

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1. None of those countries went through the Industrial revolution in the same way as the U.K. None of those countries have large, urban populations, a legacy of de industrialisation.

2. Norway especially skipped straight from largely agrarian society to post industrial, via huge influx of cash from oil.

3. Ireland stood still for 70 years as an agrarian nation, until they hit on the genius Idea of becoming a tax haven. Good on them, if the game is globalisation, they are playing a blinder, as long as it lasts.

4. Denmark is and always has been tightly integrated to the German economy.

5. These countries consume less and save more

6. These countries have very different social, cultural and geographic histories over handreds, in some cases thousands of years.

Be honest, Independent Scotland won’t be starting at the same place those nations did.

Independent Scotland won’t turn into a tartan facsimile of any of those nations either. Not in any short timeframe. There isn’t a hope in hell.

Of course being independent isn’t just about economics and there are other (more important) considerations.

Why not just admit the likely risks and be honest about it, instead of pretending everything is going to be rosey?

It’s a bit like the EU situation.

The U.K. is experiencing the inevitable frictions caused by separation of the U.K. from the Single Market. Scotland is integrated into the U.K. in a way that the Eurocrats could only dream of, yet we are supposed to believe that separation from the U.K. is going to be frictionless?

🤣🤣😂🤣🤞🤣
Nobody said it would be frictionless, but, neither do we all think that the worst possible things that could happen will happen. I think it is a real stretch in a global market to compare histories to determine the future. Like most things in life you get a better picture by comparind assets, skill and potential.
 

Fruin

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You need to stop this Fruin :)

One answer is 'an awful lot worse if the interest rate goes up, the capacity to repay debt decreases and the only entities buying Scottish bonds have an address in Beijing'

You guys really need to start thinking through implications. There is little ambiguity in understanding and accepting the concepts that form the foundation of sovereign economics.

Your posts are cult like in their consistent denial to look at the facts, whether they be in regard to joining the EU or accepting the economic path following independence. You are being played by the party with the oldest trick in the book - nationalism and grievance. There's no economic miracle, there's no riches hiding in the landscape, there's no EU riding in to help you. All there is is the stoking of the grievance for the benefit of the party.
Only if you consider that Scotland is a poor country. Obviously, we are not and have gad good credit ratings from international and independent agencies, even removing oil and gas.
 

ozzyian

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Only if you consider that Scotland is a poor country. Obviously, we are not and have gad good credit ratings from international and independent agencies, even removing oil and gas.
Scotland isn't currently a 'poor country' though is it? That's just more propaganda. Broadly it tracks the rest of the UK and as you would expect the UK is a pretty average country that does some things well and others not. Just like any other country. The point is that it is understood that it would need to go through a period of 'being poorer'.

One characteristic you might say about Scotland is that it is a poorly governed country riven by nationalistic division. Whether that would change in the event of independence is doubtful in my opinion. Again, same as the economics in the medium (20-30 years) term maybe.
 
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Roag Fisher

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Seen this before. It is from ultra unionist Kevin Hague. Actually a strong statistical analysis based on the unknown. Does it factor in that Westminster spending on Scotlands behalf includes thousands of employees not based in Scotland and payimg taxes in England & Wales, or, that we've been paying interest on a debt we have no control over for decades? I guess we'll never know until we stop using nominal estmates based on population share.
Opening by playing the man and not the ball, which is easier than trying to comment on what he writes.
There is a huge amount of detail on the website that covers any "whatabouts" you can dream up.
If you can show where he is wrong, good for you. But many have tried and failed. KH will admit to where he is wrong and adjust figures accordingly.
This discussion has shown that the SNP have no idea how to make an indyscot solvent, and this will be highlighted just before any indyref, just like the last time.
As for Norway, they have a large number of people they can tax. Not so Scotland, and quite a few individuals and companies will simply up sticks and move south if any attempt is made to tax them unfairly.
There are more public than private sector workers in Scotland. That is quite a burden on the higher rate tax payers.
What is the situation in Norway?
 

Fruin

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Roag Fisher, that is why I steer clear of posting things from Indy sites or supporters of Indy, because I know that you lot will just class it as tainted. It is without a shadow of a doubt that Kevin Hague is an ultra yoon and is playing with statistics. I have avoided posting these up until now but, here you go, it's your turn to play the man...





To correct you, there are not more people employed in the public sector than the private sector in Scotland - that is a ridiculous statement to make. Typically there are around 500,000 public sector workers in Scotland and 2,000,000 private sector workers.

Also, why do Norway have more people they can tax?
 

Grassy_Knollington

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Nobody said it would be frictionless, but, neither do we all think that the worst possible things that could happen will happen. I think it is a real stretch in a global market to compare histories to determine the future. Like most things in life you get a better picture by comparind assets, skill and potential.

That’s a neat shift from the tangible to the intangible there Fruin. Happy to compare and contrast outcomes, but not the factors that contribute to those outcomes.

Indy Scotland will do ok but it won’t be Denmark, it won’t be Ireland 2021 and it definitely won’t be Norway.

To achieve these benchmarks requires a level of social, economic and cultural change which would be hard to deliver in a perfect world. Thing is, we don’t live in a perfect world, we live in the real one.

Scotland could absolutely be independent, it would be seriously challenging for that Independent nation to maintain existing spending and standards of living, but it may be that is considered a worthwhile trade off to gain control of all the levers of power.

It is beyond credibility to suggest that Scotland could maintain current services and lifestyles whilst the Great Leap Forward takes place and the rest of the world stands still. A sacrifice will be required simply to play the game, never mind win.

It is disingenuous at best to pretend otherwise.
 

salmo76

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Roag Fisher, that is why I steer clear of posting things from Indy sites or supporters of Indy, because I know that you lot will just class it as tainted. It is without a shadow of a doubt that Kevin Hague is an ultra yoon and is playing with statistics. I have avoided posting these up until now but, here you go, it's your turn to play the man...





To correct you, there are not more people employed in the public sector than the private sector in Scotland - that is a ridiculous statement to make. Typically there are around 500,000 public sector workers in Scotland and 2,000,000 private sector workers.

Also, why do Norway have more people they can tax?

Right back to the phoney "Business" for SNP site , which , as anyone who reads their stuff can plainly see , is full of deceit and spin straight from the SNP Dept of Propaganda . SPINS which include some convoluted argument that Scotland is disadvantaged by the Barnett formula , SNP`s own GERS figures are rubbish and all our real wealth is hidden by the dastardly English at Westminster. Would love to see these SNP spin doctors up against Andrew Neil come out with all that nonsense and trying to back it up using their " reasoning ". It would be great car crash TV , similar to a few of the SNP financial "experts " that have already came a cropper but even better viewing for those of us looking for a right laugh , in these troubled times. With only 2,000,000 private sector workers in Scotland having to support the 3,500,000 on the government payroll in one form or another , plus the likelihood of an exodus of private employers to the South in the event of secession ; you don`t have to be a "Business" for SNP expert to see problems ahead.
 
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salmo76

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Interesting analysis by Neil Oliver on the current state of politics in Scotland , well worth a view. He also makes some very astute observations on Western society in general from around the 46th minute :-

 

Fruin

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Salmo, calling one side full of spins and lies really doesn't help anybody. Further to that, we already know that Neil Oliver is a fraud, but perhaps this says it better than I can...


If you want a real historians take on Scotland then should read Prof. Tom Devine's book - The Scottish Clearances: A History of the Dispossessed.
 
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DrPatrickT

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Salmo, calling one side full of spins and lies really doesn't help anybody. Further to that, we already know that Neil Oliver is a fraud, but perhaps this says it better than I can...


If you want a real historians take on Scotland then should read Prof. Tom Devine's book - The Scottish Clearances: A History of the Dispossessed.
I see the ‘talking up Scotland’ writer would tear down all the historic castles and houses as they are an affront to contemporary society when viewed through the magic ‘judge history based on today’s view of the world hindsightometer’. Whilst I recognise terrible things happened through history - it would seem a shame to destroy your tourist industry.
 
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