Run predictions for this year?

keirstream

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The oven ready one, was less than 1.5lbs there.
MowsGrilse.jpg
Ohhhhhh My God.
Is that fish -------------------------------------------------------deid??????????:eek::eek:
Only, I can't see what direction it's eyes are pointing so there's a cover up going on somewhere.:(:(
Nae guid will come of it, I'm telling you, nae guid.:(
 
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mows

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Al
Ohhhhhh My God.
Is that fish -------------------------------------------------------deid??????????:eek::eek:
Only, I can't see what direction it's eyes are pointing so there's a cover up going on somewhere.:(:(
Nae guid will come of it, I'm telling you, nae guid.:(
All for the good cause of keeping my vitamin D levels up.
 

GeeBee

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I have had several around 1.5lbs to 1.75lbs in the Teith.
I maintain they are smolts that haven't gone any further than St. Andrews before they
run the river again.
Known as half pounders in the steelhead world - smolts that go to sea in early spring, stay near shore then follow the autumn fish back in. Some are sexually immature, mostly males i am told. Even with no milt they will try and spawn anyway - instinct.

Run wise, much like many have said, the fishing fleets are largely being kept in port again due to covid. The super trawlers are out there but not off the Faroes as far as i know. So i think the grilse runs will be good again, and early summer fish too. Autumn will be dead fresh fish wise.

Interestingly, despite this being a cold winter here in IOM, mackerel are still here in numbers as are bass on them. I am not sure how that translates to salmon and seatrout runs, but i would think that they feed on juvie macks ?

Its been a very very wet winter, i have a feeling spring will be too.
 

Andrew B

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I have had several around 1.5lbs to 1.75lbs in the Teith.
I maintain they are smolts that haven't gone any further than St. Andrews before they
run the river again.
I’m sure that’s what they are? Had one myself about that size in with a shoal of herling
 

Maggy

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I have had several around 1.5lbs to 1.75lbs in the Teith.
I maintain they are smolts that haven't gone any further than St. Andrews before they
run the river again.
Probably, they might find the sandeel banks no longer exploited commercially but its possible they’re autumn smolts.
 

Loxie

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I have had several around 1.5lbs to 1.75lbs in the Teith.
I maintain they are smolts that haven't gone any further than St. Andrews before they
run the river again.
I've also caught several between 1.5 and 2lb both on the Exe in Devon and in the Far North, often in September. I've had one, liced, in October on the Kinloch. I can't believe they have spent a winter at sea and assume they are the salmon equivalent of finnock.
 

Maggy

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I've also caught several between 1.5 and 2lb both on the Exe in Devon and in the Far North, often in September. I've had one, liced, in October on the Kinloch. I can't believe they have spent a winter at sea and assume they are the salmon equivalent of finnock.
Possibly but having fed c twice as fast. Be interesting to know if it’s a trend from a warmer climate.

Poor old Andrew Young of Invershin, no-one believed him.
 
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Andrew B

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Probably, they might find the sandeel banks no longer exploited commercially but its possible they’re autumn smolts.
I think that’s what I had in October in Wales fishing for those shoal Sewin that left in spring a return as 1/2lb to a 1lb fish. Felt terrible as I dispatched it in the dark and only realised when I got back what it was.
 

Loxie

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I think that’s what I had in October in Wales fishing for those shoal Sewin that left in spring a return as 1/2lb to a 1lb fish. Felt terrible as I dispatched it in the dark and only realised when I got back what it was.
I once left my torch behind while sea trout fishing and when I put my bag of peal in the car one was a big brownie and one was a bass! I knew about the bass when I grabbed it to chap!!
 

FaughanPurple

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I've also caught several between 1.5 and 2lb both on the Exe in Devon and in the Far North, often in September. I've had one, liced, in October on the Kinloch. I can't believe they have spent a winter at sea and assume they are the salmon equivalent of finnock.

I read once, we used to have a much smaller smolt run in the autumn and this would tally with memories in my youth of small silver fry being caught on the lower regions of our river in October.. although the number of July sharpening stones returning 1lb to 2lb indicate produce of a much larger smolt run i.e. Spring... could the smaller 3/4lbers be those autumn smolts returning?

Anything I've seen clean in October recently has been smaller than our average recent grilse which is 5lb the last few years.
 

Maggy

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I read once, we used to have a much smaller smolt run in the autumn and this would tally with memories in my youth of small silver fry being caught on the lower regions of our river in October.. although the number of July sharpening stones returning 1lb to 2lb indicate produce of a much larger smolt run i.e. Spring... could the smaller 3/4lbers be those autumn smolts returning?

Anything I've seen clean in October recently has been smaller than our average recent grilse which is 5lb the last few years.
It needs some quick thinking and some old memories. My view would be that what you suggest Is most likely if these mini-grilse are fit and mature. Clearly they can’t go far at sea, as the earlier poster said. So rivers near feeding grounds are more likely to see these. Arguments took place on this subject as far back as c 1850 on a river not far from me: the Shin.

See the Northie work if you‘ve nothing better to do. Enjoy.

https://www.salmon-trout.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Todd-2012-Paper.pdf
 

mows

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It needs some quick thinking and some old memories. My view would be that what you suggest Is most likely if these mini-grilse are fit and mature. Clearly they can’t go far at sea, as the earlier poster said. So rivers near feeding grounds are more likely to see these. Arguments took place on this subject as far back as c 1850 on a river not far from me: the Shin.

See the Northie work if you‘ve nothing better to do. Enjoy.

https://www.salmon-trout.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Todd-2012-Paper.pdf
It's an interesting paper, but maybe not wrt to the small grilse.
The large numbers in my opinion are a relatively new phenomenon, ( maybe the last 10 years, which is after the accurate smolt counting stopped)
And they were often painfully thin.
 

Maggy

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It's an interesting paper, but maybe not wrt to the small grilse.
The large numbers in my opinion are a relatively new phenomenon, ( maybe the last 10 years, which is after the accurate smolt counting stopped)
And they were often painfully thin.
Not seen any unfortunately. Needs a calm, careful look right enough. It’s the next stage after this development which worries me.

The paper will be relevant on smolt age issues. if this is a new era, then there had better be some grub at sea - as in Young’s time on Shin.
 

FaughanPurple

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It needs some quick thinking and some old memories. My view would be that what you suggest Is most likely if these mini-grilse are fit and mature. Clearly they can’t go far at sea, as the earlier poster said. So rivers near feeding grounds are more likely to see these. Arguments took place on this subject as far back as c 1850 on a river not far from me: the Shin.

See the Northie work if you‘ve nothing better to do. Enjoy.

https://www.salmon-trout.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Todd-2012-Paper.pdf
They're clearly fit as I've had them both below and above falls which are situated well away from the coast . As for mature. If they're Cock fish I'm sure they are since parr stage, Hen fish may be debatable without autopsy. Both went back as i played by the rules..

I'll certainly read the link when I get time. Thanks.
 
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