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mows

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This is the problem. You can't know. If you saw my father on his 80th birthday you would think he should have died at least 5 years earlier from his serious heart condition which he'd had for 25 years. He died at 82.

Very few 80+ year olds have no comorbidities as would be reported on a death certificate. This is the whole point, you can't think of comorbidities as stuff which is going to kill you tomorrow.
But you assume with many, that it will kill you earlier than 9 years.
I believe the calc missleading as it wont have looked at the health of those who died and compared it with those who survived.
Another way of looking at it would be the high percentage that was in care homes, and im certain the average life expectancy of those in care homes isnt anywhere near 9 years.
In fact from my anecdotal experience i would be surprised if it was as high as 2 years.
 

carrowmore

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The average age in ICU is around 60 because the majority of Covid deaths do not occur in hospital. The old and those in palliative care aren't taken to hospital for treatment in most cases.

It's one of those stats taken out of context which can scare people. It's important for people to know why the average age is so low, as treatment of every seriously ill patient would have overwhelmed hospitals several times.

Hospitals are treating mostly the younger people outwith care and nursing home settings and they are a small number in comparison. Last time I checked, it was less than 25% of deaths which occured in hospital.

The important thing about vaccines is not protection within the ICU population so I am not sure why you talk about that. Hospitals should be good at preventing transmission with ICU by now.
what is important is prevention of anyone getting admitted to ICU due to Covid.
Thankfully, the vaccines seem to do an amazing job in this respect.

My point was that if you relax restrictions whilst our ICUs are still under pressure and before vulnerable populations have been vaccinated you risk further exponential growth , ICUs fill again and the government has no alternative but to introduce a further lockdown. Isn’t that what we are discussing ?


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But you assume with many, that it will kill you earlier than 9 years.
I believe the calc missleading as it wont have looked at the health of those who died and compared it with those who survived.
Another way of looking at it would be the high percentage that was in care homes, and im certain the average life expectancy of those in care homes isnt anywhere near 9 years.
In fact from my anecdotal experience i would be surprised if it was as high as 2 years.
You are right, it deals with averages, not specific cases.

According to Google the average life expectancy of a care home resident is 2 years. But the average age is 85 in care homes and for 85 year old in general, life expectancy is 6 years.

It's difficult to tell. I agree it is not as high as 9-10 years. That is selective use of data. But it is also not the case that it was only the nearly dead and dying died of Covid.

It's somewhere in between.
 
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My point was that if you relax restrictions whilst our ICUs are still under pressure and before vulnerable populations have been vaccinated you risk further exponential growth , ICUs fill again and the government has no alternative but to introduce a further lockdown. Isn’t that what we are discussing ?


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OK, half the adult population which is by far the most vulnerable has had at least one vaccination. We know that just one vaccine offers 70% protection against infection and near 100% against severe illness.

Show me how hospital admissions are going to spike like they have in the last 2 peaks.... They can't unless the vaccine doesn't work. But we've been told the vaccine works.

We have half the population with good protection. We have the other half needing very little protection.

The NHS can cope from now on.

Where is all this caution and whatiffery coming from? Science led us into lockdown, it should lead us out of lockdown.
 

westie4566

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Probably is terrifying to that 0.0001%
Probably is sadly. Just as it'll be equally terrifying to all those destined to die of other serious illness currently undiagnosed because of the focus on that tiny figure above.

That, however, is not a reason to bankrupt the nation mentally and financially. I'll say it again 0.0001% and that's not accounting for those 830 folk currently in hospital in E+W who make up that percentage who will go on to make a full recovery.

My post was all about perspective....currently in dire short supply in the MSM and by certain folk on here.

Again to add some perspective, would you, for example, throw out really good wrapping thread and shut your business down if you had a failure rate of 0.0001% on said thread...even if some of said thread could be saved?

I've stood back and watched the narrative for a long while now. It simply doesn't match up with the facts, facts gleaned, as others have, from the official publicised data.

If one listens to the Govt. briefings and the MSM. One could rapidly come to the conclusion that they have no belief in the vaccines at all. Discuss :p
 

Safranfoer

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OK, half the adult population which is by far the most vulnerable has had at least one vaccination. We know that just one vaccine offers 70% protection against infection and near 100% against severe illness.

Show me how hospital admissions are going to spike like they have in the last 2 peaks.... They can't unless the vaccine doesn't work. But we've been told the vaccine works.

We have half the population with good protection. We have the other half needing very little protection.

The NHS can cope from now on.

Where is all this caution and whatiffery coming from? Science led us into lockdown, it should lead us out of lockdown.
I know you won't like my answer - but it's still a lot of people that could end up in hospital, not dying, but needing help to live, and the virus only mutates through replication. The more people it can replicate through, the higher the risk of mutation. Get more people vaccinated, fewer people with symptoms leads to lower transmission, reduces the chance of mutation into something our vaccine programme can't recognise and we have to start again. seeking hates me talking about Brazil - but their variant is apparently nasty, and it's in New York already, and it infects people twice according to preliminary studies. I'm really happy with caution, given I am weeks away from my vaccine.

Saying a virus will mutate isn't whatiffery. It's what viruses do. Giving it fewer paths of transmission is the only way to slow the mutations down. The worst thing we could do now is let it run rip through half of the healthy population - especially as there's no need.

I'd agree with you that we should take our chances if we were months away from vaccinating pretty much everyone and stuck in eternal lockdown. But we're not. It's a few weeks before things start to ease again. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't be cautious now, in these last days. Look at all we've done, and sacrificed. I especially don't understand why, given we are so close, we are questioning the decisionmaking process because we think it's all based on 'what if...?'. We'd be out there now and being encouraged to spend our money in Nandos again if the what if...? wasn't real enough. The best thing Boris could do to recover from 147,000 deaths is save the day with a cheeky Nandos. You know he'd do it if he could.
 

Safranfoer

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Yeah, that's terrifying isn't it? 0.0001% of the population of E+W in hosp with Covid.
It's not really about how many of the population is in hospital. It's how many the hospitals can cope with. The numbers in hospital now are about the same as they were at the start of last June. Non-essential retail open mid-June, last year. We're a week out of sync, but near enough mirroring things from last time.

If we opened up in one go, or had never closed, all the illnesses people are worried about that are going untreated, wouldn't be getting treated. If we'd remained open, the hospitals would have been overwhelmed with covid cases. As it stands, they've managed to keep some dual services running. Only because of the restrictions though. It's wrong to think that cancer patients and heart disease cases are going undiagnosed because of lockdown. They'd have gone undiagnosed in an alternate universe, because of covid. Either way, it would have been bad - arguably worse if we hadn't managed to maintain a dual system as we have this winter, however threadily.
 

westie4566

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I know you won't like my answer - but it's still a lot of people that could end up in hospital, not dying, but needing help to live, and the virus only mutates through replication. The more people it can replicate through, the higher the risk of mutation. Get more people vaccinated, fewer people with symptoms leads to lower transmission, reduces the chance of mutation into something our vaccine programme can't recognise and we have to start again. seeking hates me talking about Brazil - but their variant is apparently nasty, and it's in New York already, and it infects people twice according to preliminary studies. I'm really happy with caution, given I am weeks away from my vaccine.

Saying a virus will mutate isn't whatiffery. It's what viruses do. Giving it fewer paths of transmission is the only way to slow the mutations down. The worst thing we could do now is let it run rip through half of the healthy population - especially as there's no need.

I'd agree with you that we should take our chances if we were months away from vaccinating pretty much everyone and stuck in eternal lockdown. But we're not. It's a few weeks before things start to ease again. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't be cautious now, in these last days. Look at all we've done, and sacrificed. I especially don't understand why, given we are so close, we are questioning the decisionmaking process because we think it's all based on 'what if...?'. We'd be out there now and being encouraged to spend our money in Nandos again if the what if...? wasn't real enough. The best thing Boris could do to recover from 147,000 deaths is save the day with a cheeky Nandos. You know he'd do it if he could.
If you genuinely believe what you've just posted WHY would there be any need for more Covid powers coming into law next week?

Fair play to a few more locked down weeks to hit this nail on the head if that would fix thigs as you seem to believe.....but again WHY more powers needed if further lockdown IS actually going to work.
 
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I know you won't like my answer - but it's still a lot of people that could end up in hospital, not dying, but needing help to live, and the virus only mutates through replication. The more people it can replicate through, the higher the risk of mutation. Get more people vaccinated, fewer people with symptoms leads to lower transmission, reduces the chance of mutation into something our vaccine programme can't recognise and we have to start again. seeking hates me talking about Brazil - but their variant is apparently nasty, and it's in New York already, and it infects people twice according to preliminary studies. I'm really happy with caution, given I am weeks away from my vaccine.

Saying a virus will mutate isn't whatiffery. It's what viruses do. Giving it fewer paths of transmission is the only way to slow the mutations down. The worst thing we could do now is let it run rip through half of the healthy population - especially as there's no need.

I'd agree with you that we should take our chances if we were months away from vaccinating pretty much everyone and stuck in eternal lockdown. But we're not. It's a few weeks before things start to ease again. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't be cautious now, in these last days. Look at all we've done, and sacrificed. I especially don't understand why, given we are so close, we are questioning the decisionmaking process because we think it's all based on 'what if...?'. We'd be out there now and being encouraged to spend our money in Nandos again if the what if...? wasn't real enough. The best thing Boris could do to recover from 147,000 deaths is save the day with a cheeky Nandos. You know he'd do it if he could.
Google Brazil variant and see how much certainty there is. I guarantee most if not all headlines talk about "concerns" or "could be more infectious" and most talk about "mutant virus" or "mutations".

The fact is we don't know. There is no evidence. We have started tracking these new variants like each is a new plague. They aren't. They are just the virus doing its thing, spreading throughout the community.

They are all Covid-19.

Regarding the theory that we should allow fewer infections to prevent mutation....at peak infection there are between 10 and 100 trillion virus particles in a single human body. Most of them mutants I.e. imperfect copies of the original virus which entered the body.
About 7 million people in the UK have had the virus so far. So there has probably been between 70 and 700 quadrillion replications of the virus inside the human body in the UK and we have had one significant mutation "the UK variant" which was no different to the original in terms of infectioisness, mortality and resistance to vaccine.
 

Safranfoer

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If you genuinely believe what you've just posted WHY would there be any need for more Covid powers coming into law next week?

Fair play to a few more locked down weeks to hit this nail on the head if that would fix thigs as you seem to believe.....but again WHY more powers needed if further lockdown IS actually going to work.
Because it's the scheduled one year review of the Coronavirus Act. They're getting rid of more powers than they are introducing, extending them for 6 months and reviewing them in 2. It aligns with my view that we're nearly there but not quite - the laws are needed a bit longer. We wouldn't need them to be law (and therefore enforceable with fines) if people stuck to guidelines voluntarily. Many things became law when they weren't enforceable by asking nicely. Separate issue.

Ask me again in 6 months if I'm twitchy about the laws. The only big new law I'm aware of is the fine for travelling overseas. What else is there?
 

westie4566

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It's not really about how many of the population is in hospital. It's how many the hospitals can cope with. The numbers in hospital now are about the same as they were at the start of last June. Non-essential retail open mid-June, last year. We're a week out of sync, but near enough mirroring things from last time.

If we opened up in one go, or had never closed, all the illnesses people are worried about that are going untreated, wouldn't be getting treated. If we'd remained open, the hospitals would have been overwhelmed with covid cases. As it stands, they've managed to keep some dual services running. Only because of the restrictions though. It's wrong to think that cancer patients and heart disease cases are going undiagnosed because of lockdown. They'd have gone undiagnosed in an alternate universe, because of covid. Either way, it would have been bad - arguably worse if we hadn't managed to maintain a dual system as we have this winter, however threadily.
Funnily enough, the surgeon who I was chatting with this very afternoon would totally disagree with you. No offence but I'd trust him more than you on this particular subject.

He has taken his first week off in a year to, as he said 'recharge his batteries'. He's totally stressed out that due to Covid 'measures' (note not the actual disease) that he's losing patients long before they reach his table. He also said that the 'cure' currently being used would cause far more longterm deaths than C19 would have.

There you have it...a front line individual saying that the measures against this virus is already causing deaths NOW. Let alone what it will cause in the future.

I do agree with us being 'out of synch' re tailing out of lockdown one. So why are we so out of synch. We now have a vaccine which we didn't have first time round, which IF its so effective should be putting us in a much stronger position. YET more stringent laws are about to come in than existed in the tail out of lockdown 1. Why do you think this is if the vaccine is so good?
 
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Funnily enough, the surgeon who I was chatting with this very afternoon would totally disagree with you. No offence but I'd trust him more than you on this particular subject.

He has taken his first week off in a year to, as he said 'recharge his batteries'. He's totally stressed out that due to Covid 'measures' (note not the actual disease) that he's losing patients long before they reach his table. He also said that the 'cure' currently being used would cause far more longterm deaths than C19 would have.

There you have it...a front line individual saying that the measures against this virus is already causing deaths NOW. Let alone what it will cause in the future.

I do agree with us being 'out of synch' re tailing out of lockdown one. So why are we so out of synch. We now have a vaccine which we didn't have first time round, which IF its so effective should be putting us in a much stronger position. YET more stringent laws are about to come in than existed in the tail out of lockdown 1. Why do you think this is if the vaccine is so good?
We had a holiday booked for July 2nd last year in Greece and we were almost able to get on a flight. Missed it by a week.

I really honestly don't know why folk are getting fined £5000 for attempting to leave the country with no good reason.

I am not sure anyone will be going on holiday this year.
 

Safranfoer

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Google Brazil variant and see how much certainty there is. I guarantee most if not all headlines talk about "concerns" or "could be more infectious" and most talk about "mutant virus" or "mutations".

The fact is we don't know. There is no evidence. We have started tracking these new variants like each is a new plague. They aren't. They are just the virus doing its thing, spreading throughout the community.

They are all Covid-19.

Regarding the theory that we should allow fewer infections to prevent mutation....at peak infection there are between 10 and 100 trillion virus particles in a single human body. Most of them mutants I.e. imperfect copies of the original virus which entered the body.
About 7 million people in the UK have had the virus so far. So there has probably been between 70 and 700 quadrillion replications of the virus inside the human body in the UK and we have had one significant mutation "the UK variant" which was no different to the original in terms of infectioisness, mortality and resistance to vaccine.
I have already googled the variant. It has an established mutation on the spike protein that both makes it more transmissible and in theory makes it able to evade any existing antibodies. This is still a theory and is being researched, but it would explain why there are people in Brazil that have tested positive to a previous iteration of the virus, and the new variant. Because they know there have been reinfections in Manau, and they know that the mutation on the spike protein can cause this, and they aren't sure whether our vaccines will offer as robust protection, they are exercising caution.

I am very very cool with all of that. I KNOW viruses mutate. Honestly, I'm not henny penny sky is falling down. I'm just very cool with treating the virus with respect when I've spent months locked in my home and eating a takeaway in a supermarket carpark now counts as a family celebration. It's a boring story. But. The economic damage is done now. All there is left, is being cautious at this precarious, nearly out stage. It's a few more weeks. We've got this.
 

carrowmore

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OK, half the adult population which is by far the most vulnerable has had at least one vaccination. We know that just one vaccine offers 70% protection against infection and near 100% against severe illness.

Show me how hospital admissions are going to spike like they have in the last 2 peaks.... They can't unless the vaccine doesn't work. But we've been told the vaccine works.

We have half the population with good protection. We have the other half needing very little protection.

The NHS can cope from now on.

Where is all this caution and whatiffery coming from? Science led us into lockdown, it should lead us out of lockdown.


We have vaccinated the older population many of whom , as you point out , have either chosen not to be admitted as part of their advanced care plan or are so frail they wouldn’t be candidates for ICU even if they were admitted. The vast majority of under 60s have not been vaccinated and yet this age group makes up a large proportion of Covid ICU admissions.

I’d argue that we need to make sure that over the next couple of months there are high vaccination rates in the 40 to 60 years age range , especially in ethnic minority and deprived groups , or we risk another surge of ICU admissions by opening up too early.

The supply of vaccines in April was described as being “ lumpy “ by Matt Hancock so it’s anticipated that those in their 40s would get their vaccine some time in May. The current roadmap out of lockdown seems reasonable given that timescale.


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Safranfoer

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Funnily enough, the surgeon who I was chatting with this very afternoon would totally disagree with you. No offence but I'd trust him more than you on this particular subject.

He has taken his first week off in a year to, as he said 'recharge his batteries'. He's totally stressed out that due to Covid 'measures' (note not the actual disease) that he's losing patients long before they reach his table. He also said that the 'cure' currently being used would cause far more longterm deaths than C19 would have.

There you have it...a front line individual saying that the measures against this virus is already causing deaths NOW. Let alone what it will cause in the future.

I do agree with us being 'out of synch' re tailing out of lockdown one. So why are we so out of synch. We now have a vaccine which we didn't have first time round, which IF its so effective should be putting us in a much stronger position. YET more stringent laws are about to come in than existed in the tail out of lockdown 1. Why do you think this is if the vaccine is so good?
I've never been a supporter of lockdown as pandemic control. I'd have locked down last March, closed the borders for all but essential travel and introduced quarantine, developed proper test and trace and operated an internal economy til we had a vaccine. Very doable. I've been saying this consistently so it's not Captain Hindsight talking.

But lockdown is all we have. It's the only tool our governments have used, and too late in the day each time. I have sympathy with your surgeon and everyone suffering because of covid, but it isn't LOCKDOWN'S fault. It's the government's.
 
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I have already googled the variant. It has an established mutation on the spike protein that both makes it more transmissible and in theory makes it able to evade any existing antibodies. This is still a theory and is being researched, but it would explain why there are people in Brazil that have tested positive to a previous iteration of the virus, and the new variant. Because they know there have been reinfections in Manau, and they know that the mutation on the spike protein can cause this, and they aren't sure whether our vaccines will offer as robust protection, they are exercising caution.

I am very very cool with all of that. I KNOW viruses mutate. Honestly, I'm not henny penny sky is falling down. I'm just very cool with treating the virus with respect when I've spent months locked in my home and eating a takeaway in a supermarket carpark now counts as a family celebration. It's a boring story. But. The economic damage is done now. All there is left, is being cautious at this precarious, nearly out stage. It's a few more weeks. We've got this.
Why not just close up again if it goes tits up? I mean, IF it all pans out per worst case scenario then we may as well open up for a few months and enjoy some freedom, surely?
 

Safranfoer

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Why not just close up again if it goes tits up? I mean, IF it all pans out per worst case scenario then we may as well open up for a few months and enjoy some freedom, surely?
If I can pick when I get my freedom - bit warmer, risk of frost passed, definitely drier, BBQ weather. I honestly don't think I can mentally do another lockdown. Hanging on by a thread now. This one and then no more.
 

westie4566

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I have already googled the variant. It has an established mutation on the spike protein that both makes it more transmissible and in theory makes it able to evade any existing antibodies. This is still a theory and is being researched, but it would explain why there are people in Brazil that have tested positive to a previous iteration of the virus, and the new variant. Because they know there have been reinfections in Manau, and they know that the mutation on the spike protein can cause this, and they aren't sure whether our vaccines will offer as robust protection, they are exercising caution.

I am very very cool with all of that. I KNOW viruses mutate. Honestly, I'm not henny penny sky is falling down. I'm just very cool with treating the virus with respect when I've spent months locked in my home and eating a takeaway in a supermarket carpark now counts as a family celebration. It's a boring story. But. The economic damage is done now. All there is left, is being cautious at this precarious, nearly out stage. It's a few more weeks. We've got this.
I'm glad you're happy with the status quo.

I'm not, clearly.

A heck of a lot of economic damage has been done thus far and imho digging the hole even further when the stats show we're in the same position figures wise that we were in last June but yet better protected with vaccines makes zero sense.

THAT'S what doesn't add up to me.

Again I ask WHY?
 
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If I can pick when I get my freedom - bit warmer, risk of frost passed, definitely drier, BBQ weather. I honestly don't think I can mentally do another lockdown. Hanging on by a thread now. This one and then no more.
If the government was as quick to end lockdown as they are to go into lockdown, I would trust them more and be less utterly pissed off at every lockdown and more.likely to comply.
 

Safranfoer

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I'm glad you're happy with the status quo.

I'm not, clearly.

A heck of a lot of economic damage has been done thus far and imho digging the hole even further when the stats show we're in the same position figures wise that we were in last June but yet better protected with vaccines makes zero sense.

THAT'S what doesn't add up to me.

Again I ask WHY?
Because allowing the virus to circulate among unvaccinated people gives it more chance to mutate into something that our vaccines don't protect us against, which isn't a pie in the sky, notional 'what if...?' when there's actually already a variant causing chaos elsewhere in the world that we know has a mutation that could do this - and we know it's arrived on our shores - and we need some time to research it and be sure one way or another.

And because as carrowmore observes we need the over 40s vaccinating to properly protect the NHS. We're not far away.
 

Safranfoer

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If the government was as quick to end lockdown as they are to go into lockdown, I would trust them more and be less utterly pissed off at every lockdown and more.likely to comply.
They're not quick to go into lockdown though. On that basis, we'll be even slower.
 

mows

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We had a holiday booked for July 2nd last year in Greece and we were almost able to get on a flight. Missed it by a week.

I really honestly don't know why folk are getting fined £5000 for attempting to leave the country with no good reason.

I am not sure anyone will be going on holiday this year.
Bojos dad will be!!!!
 

westie4566

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I've never been a supporter of lockdown as pandemic control. I'd have locked down last March, closed the borders for all but essential travel and introduced quarantine, developed proper test and trace and operated an internal economy til we had a vaccine. Very doable. I've been saying this consistently so it's not Captain Hindsight talking.

But lockdown is all we have. It's the only tool our governments have used, and too late in the day each time. I have sympathy with your surgeon and everyone suffering because of covid, but it isn't LOCKDOWN'S fault. It's the government's.
I entirely concur with the final part of your post. However it is our Govt's that keep committing to lockdowns.

I know you don't like Seeking's graphs. (I have equally been there with him in the past on other subjects 😄 )

They have however led me to research how things have played out worldwide with varying degrees of lockdown from nowt to light to totalitarian. (I'm not including China in this as you can't believe a fecking thing that comes out from there!!)

What I've concluded thus far is this virus was always going to do what it did...to those most vulnerable. All extremely sad but it it what it is.

Just as I type this, I hear in the STV News that collective worship can start taking place again in groups of up to 50. Yet I still can't legally enter a customers home to carry out work even if they're in a separate room from me. Is it any wonder that I think we're all being fed a big, fat lie?
 

Safranfoer

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I entirely concur with the final part of your post. However it is our Govt's that keep committing to lockdowns.

I know you don't like Seeking's graphs. (I have equally been there with him in the past on other subjects 😄 )

They have however led me to research how things have played out worldwide with varying degrees of lockdown from nowt to light to totalitarian. (I'm not including China in this as you can't believe a fecking thing that comes out from there!!)

What I've concluded thus far is this virus was always going to do what it did...to those most vulnerable. All extremely sad but it it what it is.

Just as I type this, I hear in the STV News that collective worship can start taking place again in groups of up to 50. Yet I still can't legally enter a customers home to carry out work even if they're in a separate room from me. Is it any wonder that I think we're all being fed a big, fat lie?
I can absolutely understand why you’re utterly titsed off. It makes no sense at all that you can’t work in people’s homes. Especially as you could down here. I’ve had people working in my home. It’s really easy to stay out of their way and open the windows when they’ve gone. Feels much less risky than eg going to the supermarket. However. I just don’t understand why they’d lie to us. No one has given a credible explanation.
 

westie4566

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Because allowing the virus to circulate among unvaccinated people gives it more chance to mutate into something that our vaccines don't protect us against, which isn't a pie in the sky, notional 'what if...?' when there's actually already a variant causing chaos elsewhere in the world that we know has a mutation that could do this - and we know it's arrived on our shores - and we need some time to research it and be sure one way or another.

And because as carrowmore observes we need the over 40s vaccinating to properly protect the NHS. We're not far away.
Oh I'm really glad you're now a medical expert :p

Don't you mean 'I think' to much of the above? (y)

Seasonal flu mutates like a barsteward yet we get through that OK.....well not OK for those that contract it and die of it every year. (OBVS not this year as we seem to have eradicated it)

ALL viruses mutate. Up until now there is absolutely no scientific proof that any variant thus far is more transmissible, more acute or more deadly.

That's just all hyperbole by the MSM. Feel free to lap that up and run with it...I'm not.

You may have missed a post by me weeks and weeks ago linking to an article in the Japanese press where they'd found the Kent Variant in folk that had absolutely zero contact with anyone and anything from outside Japan.

I wonder how that happened?

Over and out for this evening. I need to chill now.
 
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