Coronavirus

carrowmore

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I think you are confusing New York State, population circa 19 million, with New York City population circa 8 million. Given the comparative low number of cases then perhaps Trump is doing something right (but then again the left would never admit that). The cases in NYC are circa 250,000 representing over 3 %.

It was more a case of the NY Governor Andrew Cuomo learning from the mistakes he made early on in the pandemic

 

bassfly

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The pubs closing is to keep a lid on students. But it assumes they won't carry the evening on in each other's apartments. Far better to keep them out and in environments they can be policed - though that places a lot of responsibility on landlords.

Unsure how they plan to stop them from coming home at Christmas, either. I know it's not a given that this will happen, but...

Sweden is set to introduce 3 week local lockdowns.
Just spoke to my friend in Sweden and he has confirmed. The misinformation about how they are dealing with the virus is amazing. He is on his way for a long weekend break on Oland Island which he and another couple do each year for the Harvest Party. He tells me that this is cancelled this year due to Covid19 and they will be restricted to the Cabin they are staying in. They will be able to do some Sea Trout fishing though to make up.
 
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mows

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It's quite low, for both.

475,000 confirmed cases in New York from a population of 18,804,000 = 2.5%

108,000 confirmed cases for Madrid from a population of 6,618,000 = 1.6%

Oh no wait - the NY figure was New York State, not city.

246,000 confirmed cases from a population of 18,804,000 = 1.3% of the population.

Edited AGAIN as the internet lies about NYC's population... ;-) (thank you tenet)

108,000 confirmed cases for Madrid from a population of 6,618,000 = 1.6%
246,000 confirmed cases for New York from a population of 8,336,817 = 2.9%
I wasn't talking "confirmed case Saffy"
for confirmed read, had 100% of the symptoms, not 80% and were lucky enough to get one of the few tests available, and no one that was asymtomatic!
I was talking actual % of people that had it.
the number that the entire world seems to be deliberately not looking for.
 

Safranfoer

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I wasn't talking "confirmed case Saffy"
for confirmed read, had 100% of the symptoms, not 80% and were lucky enough to get one of the few tests available, and no one that was asymtomatic!
I was talking actual % of people that had it.
the number that the entire world seems to be deliberately not looking for.
It's a very difficult figure to get to, in fairness. Confirmed cases between comparative cities is something of a proxy figure, though.
 

offshore

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I agree with the point you make.
However, many of the restrictions Boris is implementing appear of little benefit, the obvious one being to shut pubs at 10pm.
And if you're shutting at 10, whats the logic in allowing them to open again at 5am? Don't know how many rush out for a pint at 5am though. Feel sorry for the landlords trying to empty their pubs and lock the doors BY 10pm.

Also Ill be awaiting the first of the unintended consequences.
Perhaps more trouble at 10pm because people are guzzling as much beer between 8 and 10 as they normally would between 8 and 12?

Nice in theory Boris, the practice is likely to be somewhat different.

Do you think closing the pubs at 10pm is just a gentle way of preparing us for complete closure in another 3 weeks - if the numbers keep climbing that is.

Its just a way to soften us up I guess, for something that may be essential.
 

FaughanPurple

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You could cynically and somewhat paranoidly assume it’s all manufactured. Create a crisis and then solve it by seizing far-reaching emergency powers that dismantle everything and build it again in a way that benefits your buds.
Now you're talking sense..

By the time the population wake up and decide let's protest against these stupid restrictions, they can't.

Why? Because the current government have made it illegal to assemble in groups both indoors and out..

Go to work buy a coffee go for pint now don't see people in groups outside of commercial activities

Makes perfect sense. Not.
 

Safranfoer

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Do you think closing the pubs at 10pm is just a gentle way of preparing us for complete closure in another 3 weeks - if the numbers keep climbing that is.

Its just a way to soften us up I guess, for something that may be essential.
The October half term circuit breaker does seem to be a given now. Glad I cancelled the cottage booking we had now.
 

offshore

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That's not my point. If there are many in the country who will go without a test, then testing and tracing can have minimal impact on the Re number.
Testing is not a preventive measure on its own and we don't test the 80% of Covid carriers who are most likely to pass the disease on, the asymptomatic.
The 20% who have symptoms, and the fraction of those who get tested and self isolate is not a high enough number to control the spread of the disease.

I simply don't see how tracing around 10% (I'm being generous) of confirmed cases can halt the spread of the disease.

Testing, tracing and self isolation of all cases, even the asymptomatic, is a preventive measure but we need to be able to test millions more than we do now and people need to self isolate even if asymptomatic.

The only preventive measures are our own behaviours during the pandemic. If we take no notice of personal hygiene, mask wearing and social distancing then all testing does is produce trends by which the government adapts its restrictions.

Interesting points; I follow your logic.

Two questions.

Are asymptomatic carriers as contagious to others as symptomatic carriers - couching regularly that is?

Secondly, are people located by the mobile phone app to have been in close contact with a positive case 'forced' to self isolate - or only if they have symptoms themselves ?
 

Jockiescott

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Now you're talking sense..

By the time the population wake up and decide let's protest against these stupid restrictions, they can't.

Why? Because the current government have made it illegal to assemble in groups both indoors and out..

Go to work buy a coffee go for pint now don't see people in groups outside of commercial activities

Makes perfect sense. Not.

Sure you can make a one man protest...

8b0b844a4f5d35d2519c50b5205bb12d.jpg
 

Safranfoer

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Interesting points; I follow your logic.

Two questions.

Are asymptomatic carriers as contagious to others as symptomatic carriers - couching regularly that is?

Secondly, are people located by the mobile phone app to have been in close contact with a positive case 'forced' to self isolate - or only if they have symptoms themselves ?
Asymptomatic carriers are more of a problem even if they cough less because they are unwitting.

Most decent people these days are mindful if they have a cough, and lay low. They cough hygienically. Try and test and behave cautiously. Asymptomatic carriers just don’t know. And as shouting, singing, yawning and sneezing all send out aerosol spray, and even conversation transmits, they’re the unseen part of the iceberg. We’d be in a better place if they widened the contexts we have to wear masks...
 

carrowmore

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Interesting points; I follow your logic.

Two questions.

Are asymptomatic carriers as contagious to others as symptomatic carriers - couching regularly that is?

Secondly, are people located by the mobile phone app to have been in close contact with a positive case 'forced' to self isolate - or only if they have symptoms themselves ?

"We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25-69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission. "


Hence why contact tracing of asymptomatic individuals is so important . Contacts are required to quarantine for 14 days ( from 28th September it will be illegal for people not to self isolate once contacted by T&T ) and if they do so then community transmission falls and that combined with distancing , hand washing etc gives us the best chance of getting the R number back below 1. I live in a high risk area and have downloaded the NHS app today. If we all do so then we are doing our bit to reduce chains of transmission.

 

offshore

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"We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25-69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases' presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission. "


Hence why contact tracing of asymptomatic individuals is so important . Contacts are required to quarantine for 14 days ( from 28th September it will be illegal for people not to self isolate once contacted by T&T ) and if they do so then community transmission falls and that combined with distancing , hand washing etc gives us the best chance of getting the R number back below 1. I live in a high risk area and have downloaded the NHS app today. If we all do so then we are doing our bit to reduce chains of transmission.


Thanks for that information - I didn't realise that.

So to throw a spanner in the works, if people are legally obliged to self isolate if identified as being in contact via their phone app, I wonder if some people will deliberately not download the App on that basis? That is, to avoid self isolation just on the possibility they may have caught it ???

Oh well, its not mean't to be easy.
 

offshore

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I have just received an email from the organisers of the local point-to-point ; I never go as it happens.

They have cancelled the fixture for late February 2021 and 'hope to run it sometime 2022, if things have returned to normal by then'.

2022 !!!!

I think I may need to buy a dog and get a bigger garden to do.

I hope we haven't screwed up badly, by not pursuing the New Zealand / AU model from March this year; I think its an urban myth that our economy is that much different from theirs and would therefore be impossible. I think we have just been too lazy to bother - or even investigate it fully.
 

carrowmore

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Thanks for that information - I didn't realise that.

So to throw a spanner in the works, if people are legally obliged to self isolate if identified as being in contact via their phone app, I wonder if some people will deliberately not download the App on that basis? That is, to avoid self isolation just on the possibility they may have caught it ???

Oh well, its not mean't to be easy.

Indeed , according to Johnson the reason why our T&T system pales in comparison to those of Germany and Italy is because " we are a freedom loving country " :rolleyes:
 

mows

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Hence why contact tracing of asymptomatic individuals is so important . Contacts are required to quarantine for 14 days ( from 28th September it will be illegal for people not to self isolate once contacted by T&T ) and if they do so then community transmission falls and that combined with distancing , hand washing etc gives us the best chance of getting the R number back below 1. I live in a high risk area and have downloaded the NHS app today. If we all do so then we are doing our bit to reduce chains of transmission.

If asyptomics are the killer spreader, why would we as a country consciously choose not to test them, but test ones with symptoms.
What advantage is there in testing the ones with symptoms?
 

Safranfoer

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If asyptomics are the killer spreader, why would we as a country consciously choose not to test them, but test ones with symptoms.
What advantage is there in testing the ones with symptoms?
Identifying hot spots to apply local restrictions, thus avoiding national restrictions.

We need to test both. There aren't enough tests for both. It's understandable as to why, but still. We need both.
 

carrowmore

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Thank you for the comprehensive article. Seems fair enough - I'll download...

We have 2 daughters who are in their 20s and both working from home. They are in a higher risk category as , quite rightly , they are trying to maintain their social lives and meeting up with their pals. With a gentle nudge from their Dad they've both downloaded the app today.
 

mows

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Identifying hot spots to apply local restrictions, thus avoiding national restrictions.

We need to test both. There aren't enough tests for both. It's understandable as to why, but still. We need both.
How's that working?
Certainly not in my country!
In my country blind people can see the hot spots, but banning that area from playing tiddlywinks isn't going to make any difference.
I often hear the words, there isn't enough tests, but I have not once heard a plausible explanation for there not being enough tests.
In fact as the numbers of cases have risen, the number of tests have dropped.
We have went from 16115 tests resulting in identifying 123 cases
To 6233 tests to identify 486 cases, and again, that's probably only the ones with symptoms.
We did have enough tests, where have they gone.

It looks much more like to me that 16115 tests would give a really inconvenient answer of more like 900 cases and that's why there aren't tests.

Other wise as per your statement, it's important that we test!

There appears to be all kind of games being played in the backgroud.
 

Safranfoer

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The explanation for no tests is actually there is no lab capacity to process tests. I haven't heard a plausible explanation for why we can't use more of our labs though and I suspect politicking.
 
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