Coronavirus

offshore

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Bang on. It's our behaviours and the measures we take based on government advice which affect Re.

This is why when individuals ignore the advice and don't give a toss about social distancing, masks, self isolation, group gatherings etc it directly impacts the Re number.
Re is down to every single one of us to control. When any individual ignores the measures in place, it drags this out for longer and more people die and more people lose their jobs. To ignore the measures in place is incredibly irresponsible regardless of your thoughts on dictats from government and human rights.

Regardless, another peak is coming and when our behaviours further change during the coming winter months and the shortening days and we stay inside longer with doors and windows closed, it will get worse.
The government are trying to minimise the damage to the economy until a vaccine arrives. The vaccine is without doubt the most effective measure to reduce Re well below 1 and allow normality to return.
The problem is our plan seems to be based on hope, rather than hard facts and reality.
So true. It appears an activity in denial more than a plan - on the assumption a miracle vacine will came along and sweep the problem away. Near miracles do occur, so that could happen eventually.

A plan would be to adopt the new Zealand model which is proven to work, albeit some negatives. They don't want to countenance that here (or even discuss it strangely), and just want to 'get back to normal' with fingers crossed in the meantime. It doesn't inspire confidence in me, but I am not a risk taker by nature.

In view of our accepted inadequate track and trace system , 'sending' people on holiday to Europe with potential for contamination at every step/drink/eatery/hire car/train/plane/toilet seems like something out of a Monty Python sketch. The same countries didn't have enough mortuary space to store the dead bodies 18 weeks ago, and out own health system was unable to do better than achieve the highest excess deaths in Europe.

Not great really.
 

Jockiescott

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Just discovered a previously unknown to me impact of the virus - anyone tried to buy a bike lately?! My son wants one for his birthday later in the month. I think I just bought the last 15” framed bike below £600 in the country. Much drama. Spent way more than I wanted to. No deals to be had. No bikes to be had. Most places won’t get new deliveries now until January. Who the heck knew?
Yes, cycling took off during the lockdown. My local bike shop was getting over 100 messages alone a day asking about stock. That's not including phone calls an emails.

There were queues to get into Halfords with people looking for bikes.

I've took a fascination with e-bikes recently and have been reading up on them online and the different mechanisms and that. That's really all you can do as there are virtually no e-bikes available in the UK.

One independent builder is releasing a new e-bike this month. The initial build of the bikes has already sold out as have the next batch arriving in October. The next batch after that isn't expected until the new year.
 

offshore

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Just discovered a previously unknown to me impact of the virus - anyone tried to buy a bike lately?! My son wants one for his birthday later in the month. I think I just bought the last 15” framed bike below £600 in the country. Much drama. Spent way more than I wanted to. No deals to be had. No bikes to be had. Most places won’t get new deliveries now until January. Who the heck knew?
Secondhand Sandstone paving gets snapped up pretty smartish on Facebook Marketplace too - I've been trying. The builders merchants said 'every man and his bloody dog are doing their garden at the moment' .

I have gone for gravel instead. Bloody Corvid !
 

MikeCC

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Nope.
Let me give you an example with made up numbers just to show you the difference.

Today in the UK we have 4000 new infections daily and an R value of 0.5. The number of infected people from that point on will continue to fall if R stays at 0.5 i.e. everyone observes the behaviours which maintains R at 0.5.
Tomorrow, 1000 people return from vacation with Covid. And there are 1000 new cases tomorrow. There is an increase in daily new cases from 4000 to 5000 on that day but as long as everyone observes the behaviours required to keep R at 0.5 then the number of cases will continue to decline.
However, the fact that say 100,000 people went on vacation 2 weeks ago means that the R value has increased at that point in time because 100,000 of the population were doing something higher risk than observing the lockdown precautions which kept the R value at 0.5. That increase in R value is the reason why cases start to increase and why you got that spike when they returned. If 100,000 people continue to go on holiday every day and 2 weeks later 1000 people per day return with covid that is an increase in the effective R value which caused the increase in Covid cases when they returned.

The Re value is dependent on all our behaviours. Go abroad on holiday to a Covid hotspot and you increase the probability of you getting the disease and increase the Re number for the UK population. The more people who do these higher risk activities, the greater the impact on Re for the population. If everyone in the country today ignored everything and went back to pre-covid behaviours, Re would increase from ~1 today to ~2.5 tomorrow and we would soon see another sharp spike like we did in March.

The increase due to people coming home from vacation with Covid is not due to some change in an imaginary changing constant, it's due to a change in the Re value caused by the change in behaviour - going from a policy of no travel to travel allowed. Any higher risk activity from any individual increases the Re number for the population. The more people who do that, the greater the impact on Re.

If 1million people per day go on vacation to a completely Covid free country and the Covid secure procedures getting them there and back are extremely good, there would actually be a positive impact on Re because those 1 million people have reduced their individual probabilities of catching Covid almost to zero and therefore reduced the Re for the population as a result. Conversely, the Re for the Covid free country increases as soon as those 1million Brits, some of whom will have Covid (the law of big numbers) land on their soil.

Behaviours affect Re. Re affects the change in new cases of Covid. Below 1 we are winning, above 1 we are losing. Re = 1 is that magic number, the tipping point.
You’ve entirely missed the point. Nobody is questioning what the R number is about. The discussion was about why 1 is not a ‘magic’ number but I honestly cant be bothered to continue trying to explain why its not ‘magic‘. Next topic please......
 

Safranfoer

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Yes, cycling took off during the lockdown. My local bike shop was getting over 100 messages alone a day asking about stock. That's not including phone calls an emails.

There were queues to get into Halfords with people looking for bikes.

I've took a fascination with e-bikes recently and have been reading up on them online and the different mechanisms and that. That's really all you can do as there are virtually no e-bikes available in the UK.

One independent builder is releasing a new e-bike this month. The initial build of the bikes has already sold out as have the next batch arriving in October. The next batch after that isn't expected until the new year.
I was vaguely aware that cycling had increased in popularity - but Christ... I called the bike shop I like to use this morning - independent, great value, huge range, always really helpful - and the cheapest bike they had in stock was £2500. Oof. I had to drive to a Halfords nearly 40 miles away to get one.

I like the look of e-bikes. I think I’d get out on my bike MUCH more if I had a bit of help on the inclines... How much do you need to spend to get a decent one without being daft about it? Clearly one for next year/year after though... I need to find a form of exercise to see me through. I used to swim but I just don’t find the idea sanitary right now. Not fit enough to run at the mo, can’t be done with couch to 5k. If I’m not feeling it, I won’t keep at it.
 

Jockiescott

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I was vaguely aware that cycling had increased in popularity - but Christ... I called the bike shop I like to use this morning - independent, great value, huge range, always really helpful - and the cheapest bike they had in stock was £2500. Oof. I had to drive to a Halfords nearly 40 miles away to get one.

I like the look of e-bikes. I think I’d get out on my bike MUCH more if I had a bit of help on the inclines... How much do you need to spend to get a decent one without being daft about it? Clearly one for next year/year after though... I need to find a form of exercise to see me through. I used to swim but I just don’t find the idea sanitary right now. Not fit enough to run at the mo, can’t be done with couch to 5k. If I’m not feeling it, I won’t keep at it.
It seems that you can spend any amount you like.

They seem to start from around £700 and go beyond 12k if you really wanted to.

Halfords have decent entry level ones around 1k which seem to get good reviews online. The ones available from Decathlon seem to be more than decent too.

I live in a bit of a hollow and there's hills out of it no matter what way I go. A wee push up the hills would be greatly appreciated. Need something to get some exercise once I stop fishing.
 

salarchaser

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They’re definitely softening us for pubs and restaurants closing again... yes?


Still think they should use the unused gig venues and exhibition spaces to spread classrooms out, keep those spaces going financially and educate our kids in smaller clusters.
Not been in a pub or restaurant since the start of lockdown. Personally I dont want to take the risk.
I feel for the owners / employees of such establishments, but I will continue to be cautious.
 

salarchaser

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You’ve entirely missed the point. Nobody is questioning what the R number is about. The discussion was about why 1 is not a ‘magic’ number but I honestly cant be bothered to continue trying to explain why its not ‘magic‘. Next topic please......
It appears the vast majority, including the scientists, see R=1 as a very important number. Indeed, one of the criteria for releasing lockdown was R<1.
You seem to be the exception.
Cant be bothered to explain it any further.
I agree, next topic.
 

Safranfoer

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Not been in a pub or restaurant since the start of lockdown. Personally I dont want to take the risk.
I feel for the owners / employees of such establishments, but I will continue to be cautious.
Neither have I. I’m ordering in from decent restaurants - our ‘call in’s as my son calls them are now way fancier than your usual grotty pizza/Chinese/Indian. I’ve found a Korean restaurant that delivers, and our local Italian does too. So I don’t feel terrible. I’m probably eating in like this more than I went out before, just because opportunities to break up the routine and do something different are thinner on the ground now. But no desire to insert myself in a group of people. I accept and observe all the guidelines but they’re faffy. I went to get petrol this morning on my way to the bike shop and the combination of long hair/wind/mask/glasses/queuing/other people not distancing just made it faffy.
 

Jockiescott

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I ordered a Chinese takeaway two weeks ago. My first Chinese since March. I couldn't believe how much I didn't enjoy it. And how salty it was. It was very disappointing.
 

AlanT

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If the influx of new cases from Spain came when the r was eg 0.5, it wouldn’t necessarily cause the r to rise though, if we had measures in place to stop transmission. So if we had a rule where households couldn’t mingle, people had to stay 3m apart and wear a mask at all times outside their homes, indoors and out, and every human stuck rigidly to those rules, an influx of cases would have little to no impact.

Yes this 👆👆👆
thats exactly what I'm saying in my post above, its all about observing the measures in place and maintaining R<1
 
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Walleye

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You’ve entirely missed the point. Nobody is questioning what the R number is about. The discussion was about why 1 is not a ‘magic’ number but I honestly cant be bothered to continue trying to explain why its not ‘magic‘. Next topic please......
Yeah, it's clear you don't understand this one so yes, next topic.
 

AlanT

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That's fine Alan, as long as the airport and airplane don't start the super spreading, if that's the case then you have already added a multiplication factor to the other countries R number on number of infected arivals.
I can't sit 1" from one of 300 random strangers anywhere in the UK and most likely the visited country. I can't share a toilet with approx 50 random strangers, but can on the plane. I normally wouldn't be cueing in the same line as 1000s of others indoors with common touch points.
We don't know yet because there is very limited air travel, but it wouldn't surprise me if airports carried a very inconvenient K factor.
Thats exactly why I said its not a great concern if R<1 and infected visitors stick to the rules. Even superspreaders will not be superspreaders if they socially distance, sanitise etc
 

MikeCC

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Yeah, it's clear you don't understand this one so yes, next topic.
Wallaye, honestly mate....its not about not understanding R, its about the bigger picture factors that influence R and how the R doesnt need to be 1 or greater to cause a massive problem, if the people who effectively drive R dont adhere to the rules. We’re on the same subject but on two different sub areas. But yes, lets move on.....
 
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Safranfoer

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It seems that you can spend any amount you like.

They seem to start from around £700 and go beyond 12k if you really wanted to.

Halfords have decent entry level ones around 1k which seem to get good reviews online. The ones available from Decathlon seem to be more than decent too.

I live in a bit of a hollow and there's hills out of it no matter what way I go. A wee push up the hills would be greatly appreciated. Need something to get some exercise once I stop fishing.
Sheffield is famous for its hills, and while the Peak District isn’t peaky at all, not much is flat... I’d love to go out on a bike for the afternoon but I think I’d find myself exhausted after half an hour. Now I’ve moved, I’ve lost my flat running route and it’s a key factor in me stopping running.

£1000 isn’t ridiculous. It’s a lot, though... something to think about.
 

Safranfoer

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I ordered a Chinese takeaway two weeks ago. My first Chinese since March. I couldn't believe how much I didn't enjoy it. And how salty it was. It was very disappointing.
There’s nothing worse than a bad ‘treat’. We had a McDonald’s the other day. The boy’s request. Our first probably this year. The quarter pounder oozed grease, the chips were freezing cold and horrible. So disappointing. A McDonald’s is supposed to be a dirty guilty pleasure. That’s its one job.

We have a new Chinese takeaway in our village and the crispy chilli beef is actually properly crispy, not gelatinous and impossible to chew. It’s a miracle.
 

Jockiescott

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Sheffield is famous for its hills, and while the Peak District isn’t peaky at all, not much is flat... I’d love to go out on a bike for the afternoon but I think I’d find myself exhausted after half an hour. Now I’ve moved, I’ve lost my flat running route and it’s a key factor in me stopping running.

£1000 isn’t ridiculous. It’s a lot, though... something to think about.
It seems that the different levels of assistance available with an ebike means that it makes you feel that you are pedalling on flat roads even when going up quite steep hills. I could pedal for long enough on the beach for example but I can't do hills. 😂

Most shops offer 0% finance so depending on the what you buy and how much of a deposit you pay, its possible to get some excellent bikes for between £50-£60 a month.

I'm just wary of really taking the plunge for the fear I lose interest in it after the first month. £60 a month for some to take up space in the shed gathering dust just would make much sense either.
 

ibm59

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There’s nothing worse than a bad ‘treat’. We had a McDonald’s the other day. The boy’s request. Our first probably this year. The quarter pounder oozed grease, the chips were freezing cold and horrible. So disappointing. A McDonald’s is supposed to be a dirty guilty pleasure. That’s its one job.

We have a new Chinese takeaway in our village and the crispy chilli beef is actually properly crispy, not gelatinous and impossible to chew. It’s a miracle.
Haven’t had a take away or carry in , nor visited a restaurant or pub , since February.
Won‘t be rushing to do so either.
 

Walleye

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There’s nothing worse than a bad ‘treat’. We had a McDonald’s the other day. The boy’s request. Our first probably this year. The quarter pounder oozed grease, the chips were freezing cold and horrible. So disappointing. A McDonald’s is supposed to be a dirty guilty pleasure. That’s its one job.

We have a new Chinese takeaway in our village and the crispy chilli beef is actually properly crispy, not gelatinous and impossible to chew. It’s a miracle.
We are lucky, we live roughly halfway between a restaurant called "Fat Buddha" and their takeaway outlet "Little Fat Buddha".
It's nothing like the good Asian restaurants you get in Asia but for English Asian, it's the best takeaway. Singapore, Malaysian, Thai, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Hong Kong food and Asian Tapas, all on the takeaway menu.
No dumplings though. Someone needs to start selling a decent range of dumplings on their menu.
 

carrowmore

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It seems that the different levels of assistance available with an ebike means that it makes you feel that you are pedalling on flat roads even when going up quite steep hills. I could pedal for long enough on the beach for example but I can't do hills. 😂

Most shops offer 0% finance so depending on the what you buy and how much of a deposit you pay, its possible to get some excellent bikes for between £50-£60 a month.

I'm just wary of really taking the plunge for the fear I lose interest in it after the first month. £60 a month for some to take up space in the shed gathering dust just would make much sense either.
My daughters ( both working from home since March ) begged me to buy a treadmill after the gyms closed. I relented . Guess what is gathering dust in the garage ....
 
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