Coronavirus

bassfly

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A lifestyle that means you are more likely to work in front line services and live in a multi-generational household in densely populated areas of terraced housing in one of the poorest towns in the country , therefore rendering yourself much more susceptible to contracting the virus .

Notwithstanding the fact that Blackburn is testing at a rate of 490 per 100,000 whilst the average testing rate across the UK is only 99 per 100,000.

Correct
 

Roag Fisher

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9 deaths versus 1772 so far in July would suggest the Scottish strategy is working


"Scotland used the time in lockdown, which began on 23 March, to build up a “test, trace, isolate, support” system, referred to as “Test and Protect.” This helped suppress the virus. Lockdown measures have been eased cautiously and in a stepwise fashion. This strategy involves testing symptomatic people, tracing contacts, isolating those who are carrying or have been exposed to the virus, and providing them with necessary support to meet their needs. Early on, Health Protection Scotland decided not to rely on an app for contact tracing, but to build up existing capacity within NHS public health boards.

Scotland also took a more cautious route out of lockdown,
using phases that usually started two or three weeks after the rest of the UK.1 When the message in England switched to “stay alert” on 10 May, Scotland continued with the “stay at home” message. Even until 3 July, households were encouraged not to travel more than five miles from their home for leisure. Households are also encouraged to meet and interact with others outdoors, which is in line with increasing evidence on the lower risk of transmission outdoors. Clear messaging seems to be an important component of adherence to rules, given that the majority of people want to follow public health guidance but need to have clear instructions on what is and is not permissible.

A third component of Scotland’s approach is a high degree of trust in government and in the leadership of the first minister Nicola Sturgeon to manage covid-19 effectively, as a recent Edinburgh University study noted. In late March, the Scottish government established its own scientific advisory group to coordinate with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and provide advice tailored for Scotland. From its inception, transparency was encouraged and the Scottish government website published the membership of the group, as well as minutes and eventually background papers. Sturgeon and other key senior officials held daily briefings outlining the state of the pandemic in Scotland, as well as taking questions from members of the press, leading to intense scrutiny and debate on the measures being taken."




There is no evidence to support taking Vitamin D supplements to prevent or treat C19



In answer to your last point the reasons are outlined in the Independent Sage report

You clearly have no idea how poorly observed lockdown was in certain areas of Scotland. All Scotland has done "better" is the PR operation.
 

mows

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As yet we do not have any Randomised Controlled Trials that provide evidence to make recommendations. There may be benefit but it is not proven hence the statement from NICE. The UK has one of the highest rates of Vitamin D deficiency in Europe and it would certainly do no harm to take supplements but no more than 10mcg daily as high doses can be toxic. Below is a statement on this from The Royal Society.

I didn't mention taking supplements. I asked if vitamin D or lack was a contributing factor.
Your saying there's no evidence taking it makes any difference.
I'm much more interested in if any one has bothered to test victims and see if deficiency is a contributing factor.

I'm not sure if the Scottish government developed a track and trace, or Tayside health board did it off their own bat and it was sucessfull so copied?
 

carrowmore

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I didn't mention taking supplements. I asked if vitamin D or lack was a contributing factor.
Your saying there's no evidence taking it makes any difference.
I'm much more interested in if any one has bothered to test victims and see if deficiency is a contributing factor.

I'm not sure if the Scottish government developed a track and trace, or Tayside health board did it off their own bat and it was sucessfull so copied?
Nor did I say that taking supplements was a way to prevent or treat C19 but simply as a way to avoid deficiency or insufficiency.

RCTs looking at Vitamin D and C19 are under way.

Local Public Health teams have been carrying out test , track and trace in Scotland since late May




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SOS

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The smaller the population the quicker and easier it is to control and eliminate.
The bigger the population the longer it takes to control and eliminate.So the longer it takes the curve to come down.
Scotlands infection rate being 10 times lower reflects on the size of the population(although i think he is wrong it is more like a 100 times lower)
So they want/try to do more to suppress the virus in Blackburn and Oldham before Winter and the locals think they are being picked on unfairly.
Looks like to me another would be expert putting his tuppence worth in,without real facts.
 

carrowmore

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The smaller the population the quicker and easier it is to control and eliminate.
The bigger the population the longer it takes to control and eliminate.So the longer it takes the curve to come down.
Scotlands infection rate being 10 times lower reflects on the size of the population(although i think he is wrong it is more like a 100 times lower)
So they want/try to do more to suppress the virus in Blackburn and Oldham before Winter and the locals think they are being picked on unfairly.
Looks like to me another would be expert putting his tuppence worth in,without real facts.
That “ would be expert “ happens to be a Nobel prize winner and President of The Royal Society but of course we’re in an era when expert opinions are no longer trusted ......


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SOS

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That “ would be expert “ happens to be a Nobel prize winner and President of The Royal Society but of course we’re in an era when expert opinions are no longer trusted ......


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CORRECT
 

Walleye

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The test and trace systems in both England and Scotland went live on the same day - May 28th.

Scotland has benefitted simply from not being England. Wee Jimmy Krankie is simply making political gain from the coronavirus. There is absolutely no way on earth she would have done things before England at any stage because she would not have taken the risk - her whole strategy has been to follow Westminster by a few days to a few weeks while giving the impression she is leading.
 
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mows

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That “ would be expert “ happens to be a Nobel prize winner and President of The Royal Society but of course we’re in an era when expert opinions are no longer trusted ......


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in what way is he an expert on community transmission of Covid?
 

carrowmore

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in what way is he an expert on community transmission of Covid?
A Nobel prize winning biochemist who has spent the past 5 years as chairman of the Lords Science and Technology Committee . A committee that communicates closely with SAGE members and whose whole focus has been C19 for the past few months. I'd hazard a guess he knows an awful lot about community transmission.
 

mows

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Funny how when it goes wrong, it's because it's a new disease and we don't know much about it, but when it comes to community transfer, with particular emphasis on BAME communities, we seem to know everything.
 

Handel

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As yet we do not have any Randomised Controlled Trials that provide evidence to make recommendations. There may be benefit but it is not proven hence the statement from NICE. The UK has one of the highest rates of Vitamin D deficiency in Europe and it would certainly do no harm to take supplements but no more than 10mcg daily as high doses can be toxic. Below is a statement on this from The Royal Society.

Thanks. I went through all this a couple of years ago. I was shocked to see how low my vitamin D level was at the end of winter (March). My GP made the point though that 10mcg is for people who have a normal vitamin D level. If you have a low level 10mcg will just maintain that low level. She put me on 50mcg for a couple of months to get the level up. It worked. Key point there was though that I took some professional advice and had regular blood tests. There will be a lot of people buying these supplements and not doing the right thing with them, thinking they are fixing the problem when they aren't or, as you say, taking too much..
 

Safranfoer

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Funny how when it goes wrong, it's because it's a new disease and we don't know much about it, but when it comes to community transfer, with particular emphasis on BAME communities, we seem to know everything.
Vit D levels wouldn’t explain community transfer though. They may have an impact on outcomes, but not transfer. A person’s ethnicity doesn’t explain community transfer, in and of itself, so vitamin D levels in south Asian communities wouldn't explain why areas like Oldham and Blackburn are seeing spikes. The factors listed by Carrowmore do. More frontline workers, more poverty, more multi-generational households = more transmission.
 
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mows

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Vit D levels wouldn’t explain community transfer though. They may have an impact on outcomes, but not transfer. A person’s ethnicity doesn’t explain community transfer, in and of itself. Vitamin D levels in south Asian communities don’t explain why areas like Oldham are seeing spikes. The factors listed by Carrowmore do. More frontline workers, more poverty, more multi-generational households = more transmission.
I agree on transmition, but if vitamin D is a contributing factor to severity and even susceptibility to contracting Covid then it will have an overall effect on transmission numbers.

Not a like for like comparison, but peak flu is in February.
Not the coldest time, not the least light time, but the least vitamin D time.
Now it could also be that February is how long it takes to reach its peak, but as in a similar situation in that some people in house hold get it, others don't. It also doesn't explain why it suddenly reduces from the peak either!

It looks like Vitamin D is now going to be studied wrt Covid, so lets see what comes out of it.

Carrowmores factors, apply across a multitude of ethnicities in a multitude of regions, yet so far the BAME communities seem to be suffering more in spread and consequence.
Pretending that its just because they are front line workers isn going to help them.
The Leicester spike had nothing to do with frontline or essential workers.

Just my own opinions and may be totally wrong.
Personally I think correct Vitamin D levels are an essential ingredient in overall resistance to contracting and minimising severity of many illness.
 

SOS

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Vit D levels wouldn’t explain community transfer though. They may have an impact on outcomes, but not transfer. A person’s ethnicity doesn’t explain community transfer, in and of itself, so vitamin D levels in south Asian communities wouldn't explain why areas like Oldham and Blackburn are seeing spikes. The factors listed by Carrowmore do. More frontline workers, more poverty, more multi-generational households = more transmission.
What is the definition of a front line worker?
 

ozzyian

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Vit D levels wouldn’t explain community transfer though. They may have an impact on outcomes, but not transfer. A person’s ethnicity doesn’t explain community transfer, in and of itself, so vitamin D levels in south Asian communities wouldn't explain why areas like Oldham and Blackburn are seeing spikes. The factors listed by Carrowmore do. More frontline workers, more poverty, more multi-generational households = more transmission.
Quite obvious all this isn't it? Like all complex situations there will be a number of factors at play, in each circumstance those factors will weigh greater or lesser. In some circumstances some factors won't be in play at all in others it might be the defining influence.

Having said all that it seems to me that a common factor in spikes seems to be places where high density co-habitation and close proximity working practises are factors (Leicester, the northern towns, that area in Melbourne etc etc) That the poor sods having to put up with those living and working conditions is bad enough and now are having to put up with the ramifications of a serious pandemic. Like usual those least capable of protecting themselves suffer the most. Not to say that the multiculturalism/integration argument doesn't apply here as well btw.
 

Safranfoer

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What is the definition of a front line worker?
People that continued normal work during the lockdown and now- everything from NHS (30% of NHS medical staff are Asian) to supermarket/grocery shop workers, delivery drivers to refuse collection, the police....
 

Safranfoer

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I agree on transmition, but if vitamin D is a contributing factor to severity and even susceptibility to contracting Covid then it will have an overall effect on transmission numbers.

Not a like for like comparison, but peak flu is in February.
Not the coldest time, not the least light time, but the least vitamin D time.
Now it could also be that February is how long it takes to reach its peak, but as in a similar situation in that some people in house hold get it, others don't. It also doesn't explain why it suddenly reduces from the peak either!

It looks like Vitamin D is now going to be studied wrt Covid, so lets see what comes out of it.

Carrowmores factors, apply across a multitude of ethnicities in a multitude of regions, yet so far the BAME communities seem to be suffering more in spread and consequence.
Pretending that its just because they are front line workers isn going to help them.
The Leicester spike had nothing to do with frontline or essential workers.

Just my own opinions and may be totally wrong.
Personally I think correct Vitamin D levels are an essential ingredient in overall resistance to contracting and minimising severity of many illness.
I don't disagree with you on the vitamin D front. I was just trying to separate the transmission part of the conversation - which I believe carrowmore is correct on, or rather his sources are - from the impact of the virus, which I believe you are probably correct on based on the way the evidence is going. I'm not sure you're right that it would impact on transmission though. My layman's logic would say there are likely to be more asymptomatic white carriers than BAME, because they have a stronger immune system because of higher vitamin D levels...? Maybe, perhaps. No one's touched on the institutional racism part of the fact that the BAME community are hit hardest by this virus - the government report found evidence that this is because Asian and black people are treated differently by the system, less likely to be admitted to hospital by ambulance crews....

I just got the breaking news alert saying that we need to isolate for 10 days now if we have coronavirus symptoms, not 7. I thought it was 14 anyway. Does ANYONE still fully understand the rules?!
 

offshore

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I don't disagree with you on the vitamin D front. I was just trying to separate the transmission part of the conversation - which I believe carrowmore is correct on, or rather his sources are - from the impact of the virus, which I believe you are probably correct on based on the way the evidence is going. I'm not sure you're right that it would impact on transmission though. My layman's logic would say there are likely to be more asymptomatic white carriers than BAME, because they have a stronger immune system because of higher vitamin D levels...? Maybe, perhaps. No one's touched on the institutional racism part of the fact that the BAME community are hit hardest by this virus - the government report found evidence that this is because Asian and black people are treated differently by the system, less likely to be admitted to hospital by ambulance crews....

I just got the breaking news alert saying that we need to isolate for 10 days now if we have coronavirus symptoms, not 7. I thought it was 14 anyway. Does ANYONE still fully understand the rules?!
Yes that's correct professor Van Tam said yesterday that the period of self isolation has increased form 7 to 10 days if you have got symptoms.

If you look on the gov.uk travel advice today for Spain the isolation period on return is 14 days - presumably even if you have no symptoms: see below.

It doesn't matter anyway, because people are still leaving to go on holiday today. That can only mean many have no intention of isolating when they come back, and dont expect to be caught. Two weeks holiday for two weeks isolation doesn't seem logical.

It also means the country is more likely to go into a second lockdown, and the elderly residents of this country (still confined) will have 15 months of misery instead of perhaps six.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/spain 30/7/20
See Entry requirements for more information before you plan to travel.

Preparing for your return journey to the UK
Return travel to the UK is subject to self-isolation requirements

If you’re returning to the UK from Spain you will need to:


  • provide your journey and contact details
  • self-isolate for 14 days
Check the full guidance on entering or returning to the UK
 
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ozzyian

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Yes that's correct professor Van Tam said yesterday that the period of self isolation has increased form 7 to 10 days if you have got symptoms.

If you look on the gov.uk travel advice today for Spain the isolation period on return is 14 days - presumably even if you have no symptoms: see below.



If you’re returning to the UK from Spain you will need to:

  • provide your journey and contact details
  • self-isolate for 14 days
Check the full guidance on entering or returning to the UK
What with the meedya bein' how it is I'd say a certain G. Shapps will be feeling like he's got a target on his back at the moment :)
 

Cyclops

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People that continued normal work during the lockdown and now- everything from NHS (30% of NHS medical staff are Asian) to supermarket/grocery shop workers, delivery drivers to refuse collection, the police....
that’s not a definition, that’s examples

“Key workers” or frontline staff are employees who provide an essential service or key public service. The term has been used in many recent government announcements as officials introduce new measures to stop the spread of coronavirus in the Uk
 

SOS

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People that continued normal work during the lockdown and now- everything from NHS (30% of NHS medical staff are Asian) to supermarket/grocery shop workers, delivery drivers to refuse collection, the police....
NHS medical staff nor the police are poorly paid, and as for the other occupations you mention they are all career choices, no one is or should not be told what job they do.
Some jobs are more risky than others for contracting covid,but all people who provide a service to keep these occupations working like mechanics,electricians,joiners,tyre fitters and hundreds more are all if not front line workers are certainly key workers.
Unless the Bame community are working in sweat shops,is it not about life styles and health rather than occupation.
 
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