Coronavirus

Jockiescott

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Are you sure? We always had spare capacity in ICU but our death rate was very high.
I personally think the corona virus rattled through the NHS and Care home system in the UK and if it gets back in there, we'll have a similar peak of another 40k. I suspect in the US and places elsewhere the second peaks are not yet in the health and social care system yet so mortality is much much lower, for now anyway.

Whatever happens next, the NHS needs to be much better prepared to keep the virus contained.
I was replying to a post about death rates in the US Walleye. Those states recording 10s of thousands of new cases per day.

The hospitals there are getting to maximum capacity. If things get any worse and those units can't cope, there will inevitably be more deaths.

Sorry for any confusion.
 

salarchaser

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I was replying to a post about death rates in the US Walleye. Those states recording 10s of thousands of new cases per day.

The hospitals there are getting to maximum capacity. If things get any worse and those units can't cope, there will inevitably be more deaths.

Sorry for any confusion.
Fake news.
It's all under control.
Donald says so.
 

MikeCC

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The situation in the US seems to be getting worse by the day. I am just surprised that the number of coronavirus deaths per day is as low as it is presently, hopefully not just due to lag behind the number of cases.
Total cases in the US are a drop in the ocean(per 1 mil of the total population) in comparison to whats going on in several other countries.
 
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SOS

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New random testing survey shows that 78% of people who tested positive had no symptoms.
If this is the case across the country and has been the case for the 4 or 5 months that it has being in the uk that could mean a lot more people have already had it than has been reported.
It may well be that it is running out of hosts which could be why there is not a country wide spike after all the protests and beech gatherings.

 

Safranfoer

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That big Spanish study shows that only 5% of people have antibodies though. It doesn’t look like anything approaching widespread resistance to reinfection is possible.
 

SOS

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That big Spanish study shows that only 5% of people have antibodies though. It doesn’t look like anything approaching widespread resistance to reinfection is possible.
I know nothing but if 78% of people show no symptoms they maybe already have anti-bodies built in to their immune system which would not show up in a covid test.
Not all rabbits caught mixi.
Not all birds caught bird flu.
Not everybody got the plague or spanish flu.
It is not in the interest of a bug or disease to kill all its hosts as it will then kill its self when it runs out of hosts.
 

Jockiescott

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I think it was 78% of 120 people tested for the study. Not 78% of everyone tested in the UK or USA or society as a whole, anywhere in the world.
 

SOS

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If it was 78% of 1200 or 12,000 it is still 78%.
Always look on the bright side of life.
 

Jockiescott

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If it was 78% of 1200 or 12,000 it is still 78%.
Always look on the bright side of life.
Asymptomatic transmission has always been what I have been most wary of from the start of this pandemic.

In South Korea where they tested everyone in the city of Daegu, they found that 18% of those who tested positive showed no symptoms. Almost 1 in 5.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 80% of those who tested positive showed no symptoms.

I saw a care home provider who'd tested all their residents and staff and found 48% of residents and 45% of staff who tested positive, showed no symptoms.

There is some evidence to suggest that many care home outbreaks started from asymptomatic staff. There were homes that hadn't had any residents in hospital in the time frame that would have tied in with Covid outbreaks in the care home.

Even the government now are attempting to cover their backs by saying they didn't know about asymptomatic transmission at the start of the pandemic.

I really do wonder that while we continue to only test those with symptoms, if there's even the possibility of getting rid of covid?

Whether it's 1 in 5 or 8 in 10, those more susceptible to the virus will continue to get sick and perhaps die as a result of asymptomatic transmission, and we haven't a clue who or where these people are.
 

kingfisher

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Asymptomatic transmission has always been what I have been most wary of from the start of this pandemic.

In South Korea where they tested everyone in the city of Daegu, they found that 18% of those who tested positive showed no symptoms. Almost 1 in 5.

On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 80% of those who tested positive showed no symptoms.

I saw a care home provider who'd tested all their residents and staff and found 48% of residents and 45% of staff who tested positive, showed no symptoms.

There is some evidence to suggest that many care home outbreaks started from asymptomatic staff. There were homes that hadn't had any residents in hospital in the time frame that would have tied in with Covid outbreaks in the care home.

Even the government now are attempting to cover their backs by saying they didn't know about asymptomatic transmission at the start of the pandemic.

I really do wonder that while we continue to only test those with symptoms, if there's even the possibility of getting rid of covid?

Whether it's 1 in 5 or 8 in 10, those more susceptible to the virus will continue to get sick and perhaps die as a result of asymptomatic transmission, and we haven't a clue who or where these people are.
Good comment and worrying for all no doubt. Now I see mentioned of a big outbreak again in Melbourne, which along with other outbreaks/spikes rams home the fact we are not out of this by a long mile.
People need to realise the virus hasn’t gone anywhere and as there isn’t a virus vaccine on the near horizon we all need to ensure we take great care in where we go, whom we meet and gather with and not be too complacent.

I saw a video on the internet last night of police raiding a typical semi detached house and threw out about 30-40 youngsters. It was incredible to see them all troop out one after another holding booze and smirking as if there was nowt to worry about.
Crazy situations like that are very worrying on many fronts
 
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Safranfoer

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I’m thinking it’s more like the body not forming antibodies - or enough of them - rather than asymptomatic people having antibodies we don’t know about. The random testing done by the ONS arrived at a similar figure last time it reported - that study is a representative sample of the nation, not of patients.

I think I mentioned my married friends that had coronavirus in March. They are STILL very unwell. Still can’t work full time. He still can’t exercise, and is the fittest person I know. They wanted to donate plasma so their antibodies could help other patients but neither have sufficient levels of antibodies. She has barely any at all.

I’ll just keep on living quietly, at the yellow end of the chart...

A4EBD48D-AADE-4683-A36A-5B41A168DFAC.jpeg
 

ozzyian

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Good comment and worrying for all no doubt. Now I see mentioned of a big outbreak again in Melbourne, which along with other outbreaks/spikes rams home the fact we are not out of this by a long mile.
People need to realise the virus hasn’t gone anywhere and as there isn’t a virus vaccine on the near horizon we all need to ensure we take great care in where we go, whom we meet and gather with and not be too complacent.

I saw a video on the internet last night of police raiding a typical semi detached house and threw out about 30-40 youngsters. It was incredible to see them all troop out one after another holding booze and smirking as if there was nowt to worry about.
Crazy situations like that are very worrying on many fronts
That the young aren't medically harmed by the virus is a problem.

I was speaking to a couple of guys in a local business yesterday who haven't done anything like enough in terms of sanitisation and distancing to protect their customers (most importantly) or themselves.

Like a lot 25/27 yr olds they actually already know everything and one said to me he's not bothered if he gets it because he knows its not dangerous to him. And of course he's not really bright enough to have extrapolated the implications of his actions so hasn't considered that he could kill his or someone elses gran.

With an attitude like that any second wave will transmit readily through the weak links.
 

salarchaser

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That the young aren't medically harmed by the virus is a problem.

I was speaking to a couple of guys in a local business yesterday who haven't done anything like enough in terms of sanitisation and distancing to protect their customers (most importantly) or themselves.

Like a lot 25/27 yr olds they actually already know everything and one said to me he's not bothered if he gets it because he knows its not dangerous to him. And of course he's not really bright enough to have extrapolated the implications of his actions so hasn't considered that he could kill his or someone elses gran.

With an attitude like that any second wave will transmit readily through the weak links.
My daughter is 25 and has some traits of the 'invincible' crowd. However, while she tuts at some of the precautions her mam and I take, it has sunk in.
She comes across quite a few people in her day to day life but accepts keeping a readonable distance from us as she doesnt live with us. She saw my mother a couple times this week and refused to hug her as she recognises the risks.
Not sure how vigilant she is with others but she's respecting our well being.
As has been said on here, I use the analogy to drink driving. If you want to put yourself at risk, go for it, but dont do anything to risk the welbeing of others. Its not your decision to take.
 

Occasional salmon fisher

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As I posted a while back, I reckon the younger generations have had enough of the situation and are trying to get back to near normal, I think that will only increase unless there is enforced change or a massive new outbreak.

For the rest of us, I think it is a case of doing whatever you feel comfortable with (providing that is consistent with staying afloat financially !).

For me, that is continuing to work (probably with some face to face client meetings), going to outdoor areas (even with a few people around), avoiding indoor areas where a lot of people gather. All the while washing hands and face thoroughly when coming back inside and using hand sanitiser when out.,
 

mows

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I’m thinking it’s more like the body not forming antibodies - or enough of them - rather than asymptomatic people having antibodies we don’t know about. The random testing done by the ONS arrived at a similar figure last time it reported - that study is a representative sample of the nation, not of patients.

I think I mentioned my married friends that had coronavirus in March. They are STILL very unwell. Still can’t work full time. He still can’t exercise, and is the fittest person I know. They wanted to donate plasma so their antibodies could help other patients but neither have sufficient levels of antibodies. She has barely any at all.

I’ll just keep on living quietly, at the yellow end of the chart...

View attachment 46955
Interesting saffy.
I think it's still a bit political there.
I can't understand how they have tennis bellow golf, when you have to all touch the same balls.
I think Djorkaviks tournament showed that tennis isn't great.
I can't see school being that bad, there still isn't a track record of schools being bad. Sometimes different for the teachers!
I would certainly have cinema's higher.
Visit an elder in their home seems high, but there's no definition.
Petrol station must be higher! You have to touch the pumps and often to in the shop.

Again, a lot of the middle ones are not an issue with good hygene.

Like you, my normal life is on the LHS anyway.
 

ozzyian

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As I posted a while back, I reckon the younger generations have had enough of the situation and are trying to get back to near normal, I think that will only increase unless there is enforced change or a massive new outbreak.

For the rest of us, I think it is a case of doing whatever you feel comfortable with (providing that is consistent with staying afloat financially !).

For me, that is continuing to work (probably with some face to face client meetings), going to outdoor areas (even with a few people around), avoiding indoor areas where a lot of people gather. All the while washing hands and face thoroughly when coming back inside and using hand sanitiser when out.,
Yes, I think with a bit of vigilance you can probably mitigate for others lower standards, everyone just has to be on the ball a bit.

I'm not especially concerned for my own health but I would be ashamed if my slovenly or irresponsible actions enabled transmission to somebody who was then seriously affected. I've made some serious changes to business practises well in excess of what is required, partially because I want my customers to appreciate the level of quality.
 

ozzyian

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As has been said on here, I use the analogy to drink driving. If you want to put yourself at risk, go for it, but dont do anything to risk the welbeing of others. Its not your decision to take.
That was exactly my point with the drink driving.

It occurred to me that the same people who knew better and carried on doing what they wanted throughout the lock down period would be exactly the same people outraged and calling the police if I got myself loaded and went driving around their locality while their kids were out on bikes.
 

charlieH

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I think Djorkaviks tournament showed that tennis isn't great.
I think the problem probably had far more to do with the behaviour off-court than on. There were plenty of reports going round of players embracing, playing basketball and dancing in a night club.


 

Safranfoer

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Interesting saffy.
I think it's still a bit political there.
I can't understand how they have tennis bellow golf, when you have to all touch the same balls.
I think Djorkaviks tournament showed that tennis isn't great.
I can't see school being that bad, there still isn't a track record of schools being bad. Sometimes different for the teachers!
I would certainly have cinema's higher.
Visit an elder in their home seems high, but there's no definition.
Petrol station must be higher! You have to touch the pumps and often to in the shop.

Again, a lot of the middle ones are not an issue with good hygene.

Like you, my normal life is on the LHS anyway.
It's an amalgamated view of lots of people, so I guess there will be some peculiarities.

I think they're assuming with things like the petrol station that you wear gloves and mask - it's an American infographic. I've seen similar for the UK though - it's all broadly the same. I'm not sure why it's political though - tennis is every bit as elite as golf, where are the politics?

I can definitely see school being that bad.
 

MikeCC

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The problem with that chart(and similar info) is its open to so much interpretation that its almost pointless producing it. Theres far too many variables to take into account. Its the sort of thing my eldest daughter would be asked to produce in school as part of a project, and kids of course will always come up with a naturally simplistic result. As semi intelligent adults however things become far more subjective and open to question and personal interpretation. If you asked ten different people on here to come up with a similar chart using the same criteria, you’d get ten different results. Which sort of begs the question who the chart is aimed at really.
 

Occasional salmon fisher

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Yes, I think with a bit of vigilance you can probably mitigate for others lower standards, everyone just has to be on the ball a bit.

I'm not especially concerned for my own health but I would be ashamed if my slovenly or irresponsible actions enabled transmission to somebody who was then seriously affected. I've made some serious changes to business practises well in excess of what is required, partially because I want my customers to appreciate the level of quality.
If I was operating a business involving regular interaction with people, I would definitely be going overboard on ensuring things were as safe as possible. Mainly to keep clients safe but also hopefully to keep clients coming because they are confident about your procedures.
 

Safranfoer

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That the young aren't medically harmed by the virus is a problem.

I was speaking to a couple of guys in a local business yesterday who haven't done anything like enough in terms of sanitisation and distancing to protect their customers (most importantly) or themselves.

Like a lot 25/27 yr olds they actually already know everything and one said to me he's not bothered if he gets it because he knows its not dangerous to him. And of course he's not really bright enough to have extrapolated the implications of his actions so hasn't considered that he could kill his or someone elses gran.

With an attitude like that any second wave will transmit readily through the weak links.
In our family, it's the older people that are the problem. We went to see the in-laws on Saturday. They're 80. My mother in law can't socially distance - you have to leap away from her constant advances - and they clearly thought we were insane for insisting on staying out in the garden. They went to another family member's house on Sunday, and sent us a load of photos. Indoors, multiple households, many over 80, all hugging, sharing a buffet... My husband is despairing. It has gone past us wishing to protect them and feeling like we need to be the ones kept safe. I can understand the need to fully live your life when there isn't much left, but they're crackers all the same.
 

Safranfoer

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The problem with that chart(and similar info) is its open to so much interpretation that its almost pointless producing it. Theres far too many variables to take into account. Its the sort of thing my eldest daughter would be asked to produce in school as part of a project, and kids of course will always come up with a naturally simplistic result. As semi intelligent adults however things become far more subjective and open to question and personal interpretation. If you asked ten different people on here to come up with a similar chart using the same criteria, you’d get ten different results. Which sort of begs the question who the chart is aimed at really.
If you don't find it useful/interesting, fine. For those that aren't as bullish, it's useful to see things on a scale, is all. If you want people to stop feeling afraid and start living again, there needs to be 'simplistic' information, because as it stands the guidelines are so complicated no one is even trying to pay attention to them, which means we have to own our own levels of risk. Intelligence and common sense keep getting bandied about - you don't contain a pandemic, or indeed mobilise a nation to do ANYTHING, on such woolly terms. You give simple, crystal clear instruction. We are lacking this, so charts and the like help. Simplistic is a really good thing. Implies it's simple, easy to understand and easy to act on.
 
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