Coronavirus

ArchieL

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I see wee Jimmy crankie is on the news demonstrating how to use hand gel,she should be good at that as she washes her hands on everything other than indy ref 2.
Quote of 2020 so far for me.:lol:
 

MCXFisher

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Mows,

many thanks for your post. I never knew Edzell was in Singapore! I trust you're enjoying life out there, country I used to visit regularly in 2003-7 when I was engaged in training their government's risk and emergency managers. They've gone on to become world leaders in the sport.

You're right, the new media with its exponential public engagement magnifies fear and distorts proportionality. We've always faced the risk of pandemic diseases, but in a world in which the political classes offer both tax cuts and eternal life, these things take on extra significance. How often have you heard the mantra "even one death is too many"? Now the political classes are faced with something that threatens universal happiness, provokes fear and can't be controlled with certainty. It's a weird paradox that in a world where humankind in general has never lived better for longer it has become conversely fearful, stressed and worried, convinced that the sky will fall any moment. it's never been healthier and has become paranoid about illness and death. That paradox is the basis of my business: 50 years ago there wasn't much trade for experts in risk and emergency management, despite the fact that in 1968 flu inflicted 69,000 excess deaths in UK. Now I can scarcely pass through an international airport without meeting a colleagues or avoid the blizzard of promotion of conferences.

We won't know until it's over but these things can get serious. It's difficult to identify exactly how many people H1N1 flu killed in UK in 1918-19, because doctors, especially in rural areas recorded different causes of death: 'fever' as they'd always called it, including during the mid-1880s epidemic; 'pneumonia' because that was the kill mechanism; or 'influenza'. Nevertheless the best estimate range is between 750,000 and 830,000 excess deaths in the two waves of the disease, which is slightly more people than we lost in World War I. That flu had an R0 of 3, an attack rate of 50% and a mortality of around 1.2-1.6%. Those sorts of numbers do affect perceptions.

HMG has a duty to plan for the reasonable worst case and hope for the best, which no doubt is what the Singaporeans are also doing. We have far better information systems today and know about cases far more quickly, which allows better tracing and containment. But there is always the risk of exponential mathematics getting ahead of you, at which point your health systems get overwhelmed. It may never happen but you do have to be prepared for that eventuality.

Meanwhile life goes on. From where I'm typing this I can see the hotel on Yas Island where the Tour of UAE cycle teams are in lockdown, but the level of visible concern here remains very low when compared to the UK.
 

mows

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Thanks for that Michael.
Loving it out here on a 6 and 2 rota.
Especially in the winter.
Its going to ruin my fishing this year though.
Its a strange country with a benign dictatorship that just works.

I agree with all you say there, and if any country looses control it will be exponential.

My main point was that going by the Singapore transition rates and routes, which are probably the most comprehensive of anywhere, it appears that Corona virus isn't that great a spreader.

Cheers

Alan
 

Walleye

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The media and political classes should get as excited about poverty related deaths and diseases.

It seems they only really get excited/scared/worried when there are diseases doing the rounds which don't respect wealth.
 

offshore

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Thanks for that Michael.
Loving it out here on a 6 and 2 rota.
Especially in the winter.
Its going to ruin my fishing this year though.
Its a strange country with a benign dictatorship that just works.

I agree with all you say there, and if any country looses control it will be exponential.

My main point was that going by the Singapore transition rates and routes, which are probably the most comprehensive of anywhere, it appears that Corona virus isn't that great a spreader.

Cheers

Alan
I spent an extended period in a Singapore shipyard, requiring a haircut half way through. I asked the hairdresser what was life like as a Singaporian. He said he did everything he could to lead a healthy life style, and avoid getting ill, because the cost of healthcare was so great, it was crippling - no NHS.

An elderly Taxi driver said when he was younger people worked 8 hours a day and weekends off. Now, his son gets to the office early and doesn't leave to till very late; the country has been flooded with outside labour and people are disposable. Its a **** lifestyle basically.

Perhaps I spoke to two people with wrong views.
 

mows

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No your right enough in some ways. There is a very divided culture with haves and have nots. In saying that the poorest commute from Malaysia every day or indonesia. Probably spend 16 hrs a day work and travel and still think they have it great compared to the Malaysians at home. It's a bit like the UK where we parasite on cheap EU labour. In the yards the cheap Labour tends to be Indian.
 

Safranfoer

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It's not true that the COVID-19 isn't a great spreader - or rather, it might be slow in the scheme of all viruses, but in the context of coronaviruses, it has a higher r0 rate than normal flu (2.8 vs 1.3).

It also differs in that it goes straight to the lower respiratory tract. Ordinary flu targets the upper tract, and if it shifts to your chest, that's when complications arise. COVID-19 starts in the chest, increasing the chances of complications, and hence increasing the death rate.

I wouldn't be flying to Milan at the moment - my business's coronavirus plan restricts travel to Italy and Malaysia, where two of our key clients are based. I'm not sure it would be much fun anyway - Italy has closed its schools, cinemas/shopping centres/event spaces are next on the list, one of my clients in Turin is reporting no pasta/milk/loo roll in the shops, no one is going out for food or drinks any more and they all seem very fearful. Turin and Milan are just too close to that locked down cluster of towns.

I'm not a bit afraid of catching it (the symptoms seem mild, 2 weeks enforced home rest without having to get dressed or talk to other people would be amazing) but I would hate to spread it. My in-laws and my grandma are very high risk, and every older or immunosuppressed person is someone's in-law or grandparent. The more of us that are off work, the greater the pressure on our colleagues and the NHS. Nah. Hand washing, stocking up on paracetamol, keeping my head down keeping my head down and avoiding elderly relatives.... That's the plan.

My boy is in bed with a fever and headache right now. It's difficult to know how to respond to this. He's not coughing - it's not coronavirus. The symptoms are milder in kids - it could be coronavirus. The cough develops last - it's early coronavirus. It's just a fever and headache - it's not coronavirus. If you know, you can isolate. But how on earth do you KNOW?

Hand washing, stocking up on paracetamol, keeping my head down and avoiding elderly relatives. It's all one can do.
 

offshore

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Just to cheer everyone up and stop you worrying:

'What happens when the virus enters the body?
When the virus enters your body it binds to two cells in the lungs - goblet cells that produce mucus and cilia cells which have hairs on them and normally prevent your lungs filling up with debris and fluid such as virus and bacteria and particles of dust and pollen.

The virus attacks these cells and starts to kill them - so your lungs begin to fill with fluid making it hard for you to breathe. This phase of the disease is thought to last about a week.

At this point your immune system will start to kick in and fight off the invaders. You will develop a fever and your high body temperature will create a hostile environment for the virus. You will start to get rid of the mucus in the form of coughing and a runny nose.

But in some people - particularly the elderly and those with other health conditions - the immune system can go into overdrive. As well as killing the virus it also starts to kill healthy cells.

This heightened immune response can trigger a “cytokine storm” - white blood cells activate a variety of chemicals that can leak into the lungs, which along with the attack on the cells damages them even further. Scans of the lungs show “ground-glass” opacity and then “crazy paving” patterns, as they fill with mucus making it harder and harder to breathe.

Bacterial infections can also take hold at this point and your weakened immune system will struggle to fight them off.

This heightened immune response can lead to organ failure and death. It was a common cause of mortality in the Spanish Flu of 1918.

Coronavirus: what does Covid-19 do to the body?
 
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offshore

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[
I'm not a bit afraid of catching it (the symptoms seem mild, 2 weeks enforced home rest without having to get dressed or talk to other people would be amazing) but I would hate to spread it. My in-laws and my grandma are very high risk, and every older or immunosuppressed person is someone's in-law or grandparent. The more of us that are off work, the greater the pressure on our colleagues and the NHS. Nah. Hand washing, stocking up on paracetamol, keeping my head down keeping my head down and avoiding elderly relatives.... That's the plan.
.[/QUOTE]

You have hit the nail on the head with that comment; I am not unduly concerned about myself, but have been researching the subject, in the hope of not passing it on to the vulnerable.
 
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Thanks to Safranfoer and Offshore for giving an explanation of coronavirus much more clearly than I have read in any news article or broadcast to date.

I feel that it would be better if the authorities gave out a bit more information on how those who are in isolation/receiving treatment are progressing - rather than them just mentioning numbers of cases without giving any other information.
 

ibm59

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Over 60 , history of cardio issues , and diabetic.
Hmmmmmmmmmm.............👀
 

salmo76

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Over 60 , history of cardio issues , and diabetic.
Hmmmmmmmmmm.............👀
A bit of a worry , mainly killing those over 60 with , apart from the above , any history of high blood pressure. Also , it is killing twice the number of males than females for some reason. To make matters worse the W.H.O. is saying the death rate for all those infected is around 3.5 % which is around 20 to 30 times the % death rate for flu. Now taking into account that most of those infected are likely younger than 60 and probably 50% of all those infected are female then the chances of fatal consequences for males over 60 must be around 15 to 20% and rising substantially for those with any of the quoted underlying health conditions:eek:

Maybe time to get that will organised me thinks.
 
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Chicharito

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A bit of a worry , mainly killing those over 60 with , apart from the above , any history of high blood pressure. Also , it is killing twice the number of males than females for some reason. To make matters worse the W.H.O. is saying the death rate for all those infected is around 3.5 % which is around 20 to 30 times the % death rate for flu. Now taking into account that most of those infected are likely younger than 60 and probably 50% of all those infected are female then the chances of fatal consequences for males over 60 must be around 15 to 20% and rising substantially for those with any of the quoted underlying health conditions:eek:
Well that's me done for! 61 yrs old, diabetic. Should have just bought a one way ticket to Milan!
Hope this isn't my last post!
 

Safranfoer

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Over 60 , history of cardio issues , and diabetic.
Hmmmmmmmmmm.............👀
(I owe you a message.)
Whisky. And don't just consume it. You basically need to BECOME alcohol, to be safe. Bathe in it.

And as salmo76's post makes sobering news for men over 60, perhaps a load of y'all should join ibm59 in the bath.

I learned a lot about coronavirus when working through my business's response plan. It's already having an impact on our cashflow because we trade internationally and a load of projects have ground to a halt. And I was due to travel to London tomorrow to kickstart a new project for another client, but it's been cancelled because a nursery worker caring for one of the attendees' children is one of the newly confirmed London coronavirus cases and it felt too close to many attendees' homes. I think it's time for the government to restrict unnecessary travel. This hinterland of uncertainty is more disruptive and will hasten the spread. For tiny businesses like mine - being able to pay people through any illness while projects dry up will be challenging.

I've also started to worry about the impact this will have on the mental health of our elderly population, when friends and family no longer visit them in an effort to keep them safe.

I feel like the government engineered this as an exit strategy for all the pent up tension of Brexit. Energy has to go somewhere. Many many people were still furious. So give them a story to channel that energy into - a pandemic. My negative energy has turned into creating dystopian futures for us all due to coronavirus. These include (but are not limited to) it becoming the biggest killer in man's recorded history, not because of the virus itself, but because people start killing for supplies as paracetamol reaches £30 per 500mg capsule and face masks cost an organ.
 

salmo76

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Well that's me done for! 61 yrs old, diabetic. Should have just bought a one way ticket to Milan!
Hope this isn't my last post!
It pisses me off when they say on the news that the person who died had underlying health conditions , not many over 60 don`t have, it`s called getting old ! I know they don`t mean it this way but it`s almost as if they`re trying to allay peoples fears by saying that those who died probably had it coming ,even though some would probably have survived for many years if it wasn`t for this infection imo.
 

Walleye

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(I owe you a message.)
Whisky. And don't just consume it. You basically need to BECOME alcohol, to be safe. Bathe in it.

And as salmo76's post makes sobering news for men over 60, perhaps a load of y'all should join ibm59 in the bath.

I learned a lot about coronavirus when working through my business's response plan. It's already having an impact on our cashflow because we trade internationally and a load of projects have ground to a halt. And I was due to travel to London tomorrow to kickstart a new project for another client, but it's been cancelled because a nursery worker caring for one of the attendees' children is one of the newly confirmed London coronavirus cases and it felt too close to many attendees' homes. I think it's time for the government to restrict unnecessary travel. This hinterland of uncertainty is more disruptive and will hasten the spread. For tiny businesses like mine - being able to pay people through any illness while projects dry up will be challenging.

I've also started to worry about the impact this will have on the mental health of our elderly population, when friends and family no longer visit them in an effort to keep them safe.

I feel like the government engineered this as an exit strategy for all the pent up tension of Brexit. Energy has to go somewhere. Many many people were still furious. So give them a story to channel that energy into - a pandemic. My negative energy has turned into creating dystopian futures for us all due to coronavirus. These include (but are not limited to) it becoming the biggest killer in man's recorded history, not because of the virus itself, but because people start killing for supplies as paracetamol reaches £30 per 500mg capsule and face masks cost an organ.
UK government is about to put CoVid19 on the notifiable diseases list so check out your insurance policy to see if you can claim. Most insurance companies have declined to pay out so far because it's not on the list.
 

Safranfoer

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UK government is about to put CoVid19 on the notifiable diseases list so check out your insurance policy to see if you can claim. Most insurance companies have declined to pay out so far because it's not on the list.
Genuinely - thank you x
 

Perrypokemon

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I am type 1 diabetic so at greater risk. This afternoon I started with a tight chest and sore throat and am coughing a lot. The thing is I sent a feller home on Tuesday as he was coughing and sneezing. It seems more likely that I have whatever he had rather than Coronavirus. The thing is though I just don't know. Ringing 111 seems a waste of bl00dy time. I feel rough but not like I'm gonna see Elvis in a couple of days time. I have felt a damned sight worse with other cold and flu before now. Thinking it might be Corona seems bl00dy ridiculous. Dry cough is a pain in the ar5e right now
 

Walleye

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These are just statistics but....

Median age in the UK is about 40. Meaning half the population is over 40.

There are about ten African countries with combined populations far exceeding that of the UK where the median age is around 16 years old. Think about that, only half the population are over sixteen years of age in a large chunk of Africa.

Poverty respects borders and wealth. CoVid19 doesn't. When it's "them" it's not newsworthy. Journos are more interested in sensationalising news stories with 24/7 clickbait than reporting real news.
 

Walleye

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I am type 1 diabetic so at greater risk. This afternoon I started with a tight chest and sore throat and am coughing a lot. The thing is I sent a feller home on Tuesday as he was coughing and sneezing. It seems more likely that I have whatever he had rather than Coronavirus. The thing is though I just don't know. Ringing 111 seems a waste of bl00dy time. I feel rough but not like I'm gonna see Elvis in a couple of days time. I have felt a damned sight worse with other cold and flu before now. Thinking it might be Corona seems bl00dy ridiculous. Dry cough is a pain in the ar5e right now
Get well soon PP.
 
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