The major difference between Cov-id19 and fly is that this coronavirus is an entirely new virus that hasn't been previously seen or documented. As a result there is no population immunity, whereas with flu there are lots of people who have had all manner of sub-types over the years and therefore have some degree of immunity. It is for that reason that the attack rate of 60% is higher than most assumptions for flu.
The UK has been planning for pandemic influenza since 2004 because it sits at the top right hand corner of the national risk assessment in terms of both likelihood and impact. As a result the government has put a lot of time and effort into studying and understanding the epidemiology of mass outbreaks. Those plans have been brought out and revised regularly, including for the 2009 Mexican/Swine flu outbreak. The reasonable worst case assumption for H1N1 derivative flu is an attack rate of around 50% and an age-adjusted mortality range between 1 and 2.5%.
As Walleye correctly states the lethality of Cov-id19 is difficult to establish owing to weakness in the data and age-related distortions (e.g. I am advised that the first focus in Italy was 2 care homes with a large contingent of highly vulnerable people). Moreover, there is always a 3 week lag in fatal cases owing to treatment time. If it gets hold in Europe we should see a rapid stabilisation of the data. PHE estimated that 10% of fit adults who catch it will feel barely anything (the Brighton super-spreader recovered in 3 days) but may wander around giving it to others; the next 80% will feel ill to varying degree but recover within 2-3 weeks; and the risks are concentrated in the last 10%, of whom about half will require very serious clinical interventions.
It remains the case that good personal hygiene with frequent had washing is a good first line of defence. As before Walleye is correct that this increased awareness and changed behaviour may reduce the infection rate of the winter flu currently doing the rounds.
Whilst not wanting to belittle the Corona virus outbreak, it has a seriously disproportionate amount of press compared to effect.
We've had it here in Singapore since January and no deaths yet.
But a few in critical condition.
If you look at the links bellow and study them, it looks like its not that an efficient spreader.
In 2 months 110 people out of 5.8million have it.
Almost every case is traceable and has been passed on by close contact.
The unexplained ones tend to have visited Malaysia or Indonesia, where there is almost no official corona virus, because they don't look for it. Indonesia's take is that it isn't worth the cost to manage, just let it run its course.
In the same period, there has been 3750 dengue fever cases and 2 deaths.
It will be very difficult to establish realistic death rates as most of the countries that have a serious outbreak, are also serious liars.
And also there will be a large percentage of mild cases that aren't diagnosed.
Italy could not have got in to the state it is if the majority of cases weren't mild.
I think the corona virus will effectively save more flu deaths, by getting everyone to improve hygiene and reduce flu spread than will be killed by Corona virus.
If its about death by disease.
Why isn't it a legal requirement to be immunised for measles and mumps.
Why isn't everyone not immunised, quarantined until they are.
Why isn't HPV immunisation compulsory for both sexes.
Why isn't there an annual hand sanitising campaign during flu season.
Corona virus is an issue and unfortunately some ill and elderly people will die.
But no where near as much as other illnesses that no one seems that bothered about.
Its like its been weaponised against China and is now back firing.
Or used to manipulate the world stock markets.
So much for "JUST IN TIME" ordering, hows that working for you now?
How many decades of just in time ordering will you have to do to cover the loss made this year because of it?
The corona virus DNA sequence was first recorded in the world wide virus data base in November 2019.
Some interesting links bellow re how Singapore is managing it Singapore
gov.sg | Coronavirus disease 2019: Cases in Singapore
Researchers identify two coronavirus types as China cases dwindle
MOH | Updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Local Situation
Cheers
Mows
:couch2::behindsofa:
