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Thread: Brexit

  1. #31
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    Quote from Michael Deacon's article in The Daily Telegraph today ( yes , the DT )

    "Shameless David Davis is just Jay from The Inbetweeners in a suit "

  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oscar View Post
    All this flack of David Davis and the gov't is such a load of cheap shot rubbish.

    How on earth could anybody write a report/analysis on the potential impact of something without knowing what it is you are assessing the impact of? It's laughable to think any differently - but of course the EU has produced something, no doubt signalling we're all doomed. Ha ha indeed.

    I wouldn't trust that lot to butter my toast, never mind to try and accurately predict the impact if something innately unpredictable.

    Once we know the deal we can write all the reports necessary. Until that time it's a complete waste of time.

    I for one one have been very impressed by DD and his honest approach thus far.

    Oscar.
    I donít have a problem with Davis, he can only work with what he is given. Based on what we have seen so far heís behaved almost too politely in the face of extreme provocation and his team have done most of the running. The ideas on citizens rights, proposals for the border, 150 reasons why we shouldnít pay anything. . . .

    However, his whole negotiating position is comprised by his Bosses stated desire for a Ďdealí and unstated desire to keep us in the Single Market. Weíve turned up saying Ďgive us what we want or weíll give you what you want.í.

    I can cope with the uncertainty and I donít expect the detail laid on a plate for us. I find it hard to accept our incoherent approach and lack of muscle.

    In the end it will be better to be out and I reckon we will get no special access ( or Ďdealí). Given that Merkel was going to fail to ratify the 10 years in the making Canadian Free Trade agreement in order to get a coalition agreement with The Greens, Iím not sure we will ever get one anyway. End the pantomime and walk away now I say.

    Mayís days are numbered, it needs a different voice to accept No Deal.

    Better out than in, I just wish it wasnít so painful.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oscar View Post
    All this flack of David Davis and the gov't is such a load of cheap shot rubbish.

    How on earth could anybody write a report/analysis on the potential impact of something without knowing what it is you are assessing the impact of? It's laughable to think any differently - but of course the EU has produced something, no doubt signalling we're all doomed. Ha ha indeed.

    I wouldn't trust that lot to butter my toast, never mind to try and accurately predict the impact if something innately unpredictable.

    Once we know the deal we can write all the reports necessary. Until that time it's a complete waste of time.

    I for one one have been very impressed by DD and his honest approach thus far.

    Oscar.


    Correct. Once one listens to the full interview in context, and all of the questions and responses, the topic and reasons for their position becomes perfectly clear.
    Last edited by minitube; 07-12-2017 at 11:20 AM.
    What is the appropriate behavior for a man or a woman in the midst of this world, where each person is clinging to his piece of debris? What's the proper salutation between people as they pass each other in this flood?
    Buddha

  4. #34

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    I still think we'd be better just paying the EU what we owe them, and walking away. As long as they think they can get more money or more compromises out of the UK, we will never get a good deal. I can't really think why we need to negotiate anything, we're leaving, so just pay what we owe and leave. We have things the EU want's, so we'd be in a stronger position outside of the EU.

    I also think all the doom and gloom will end once we've left, people will see it's not the end of the world as we know it, we won't have dropped off this cliff edge that the remoaners keep threatening us with(which was supposed to happen as soon as we voted leave, and didn't). It's all the doom and gloom, and negativity, from people determined to stop Brexit, which is holding the UK back. I say forget the EU, pay them what we owe, and leave.

  5. #35

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    I donít want to be gloomy. Who wants gloom?! And Iím
    Sure the trade stuff will sort itself out. But itís actually good to have access to confident, informed Brexiters as I have questions you can probably reassure me on.

    I have a big concern about the next twenty or so years as they are the ones my son will be establishing himself in. Does anyone know where the funding and talent pool is coming from to replace the things we shared with the EU? For example, safety standards testing and research facilities.

    Does anyone know what the real cost of doing all these things for ourselves will be on an ongoing basis? So Iíve read that the new customs process will cost us an additional £1bn a year, eg. Is there a list somewhere that shows this is what we pay to to EU, this is the value of that back to us, this is what it will cost us to pick up the stuff we need to, and THIS is how much better off we will be, all things being equal trade wise (because I accept that is an unknown, but everything else we can assign a cost to, right?).

    I know that statistics and facts are unpopular on the forum but I feel like I need a graph. An at a glance reassuring guide to the economics, so I can feel confident that my boyís childhood and early adulthood isnít going to austerity max and he will get the opportunities I had in education and going into work/onto the property ladder.

    Set aside whether the EU is the big bad wolf or the fairy godmother. Brexit means Brexit. We are doing this thing. Can someone tell me what it will mean to the public purse over the next decade or so? Definitively. So Iím not as anxious.

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Safranfoer View Post
    I donít want to be gloomy. Who wants gloom?! And Iím
    Sure the trade stuff will sort itself out. But itís actually good to have access to confident, informed Brexiters as I have questions you can probably reassure me on.

    I have a big concern about the next twenty or so years as they are the ones my son will be establishing himself in. Does anyone know where the funding and talent pool is coming from to replace the things we shared with the EU? For example, safety standards testing and research facilities.

    Does anyone know what the real cost of doing all these things for ourselves will be on an ongoing basis? So Iíve read that the new customs process will cost us an additional £1bn a year, eg. Is there a list somewhere that shows this is what we pay to to EU, this is the value of that back to us, this is what it will cost us to pick up the stuff we need to, and THIS is how much better off we will be, all things being equal trade wise (because I accept that is an unknown, but everything else we can assign a cost to, right?).

    I know that statistics and facts are unpopular on the forum but I feel like I need a graph. An at a glance reassuring guide to the economics, so I can feel confident that my boyís childhood and early adulthood isnít going to austerity max and he will get the opportunities I had in education and going into work/onto the property ladder.

    Set aside whether the EU is the big bad wolf or the fairy godmother. Brexit means Brexit. We are doing this thing. Can someone tell me what it will mean to the public purse over the next decade or so? Definitively. So Iím not as anxious.
    Most of the concerns you have are natural as we are going into a new era but I do think that some of them are not such a worry as you think.
    As examples I have highlighted two in your post. The first regarding safety standards, testing and research facilities would only be effected if none of the monies we now put into these through the EU are not then funded by our own government. In most cases with regard to safety standards and testing you will find that we have some of the highest standards in the world and far in excess of many other EU countries who do not comply with the requirements set down in legislation.
    We as a country have always played by the rules of the EU to our detriment in lots of cases and are now being held to ransom by the federalist commissioners of that organisation who are worried that the cash cow is leaving and upsetting their plans of a United States of Europe.
    I feel we need to get tough with these bully boys and make demands of our own.
    This is the polite version.
    Last edited by bassfly; 07-12-2017 at 05:30 PM.

  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Safranfoer View Post
    I donít want to be gloomy. Who wants gloom?! And Iím
    Sure the trade stuff will sort itself out. But itís actually good to have access to confident, informed Brexiters as I have questions you can probably reassure me on.

    I have a big concern about the next twenty or so years as they are the ones my son will be establishing himself in. Does anyone know where the funding and talent pool is coming from to replace the things we shared with the EU? For example, safety standards testing and research facilities.

    Does anyone know what the real cost of doing all these things for ourselves will be on an ongoing basis? So Iíve read that the new customs process will cost us an additional £1bn a year, eg. Is there a list somewhere that shows this is what we pay to to EU, this is the value of that back to us, this is what it will cost us to pick up the stuff we need to, and THIS is how much better off we will be, all things being equal trade wise (because I accept that is an unknown, but everything else we can assign a cost to, right?).

    I know that statistics and facts are unpopular on the forum but I feel like I need a graph. An at a glance reassuring guide to the economics, so I can feel confident that my boyís childhood and early adulthood isnít going to austerity max and he will get the opportunities I had in education and going into work/onto the property ladder.

    Set aside whether the EU is the big bad wolf or the fairy godmother. Brexit means Brexit. We are doing this thing. Can someone tell me what it will mean to the public purse over the next decade or so? Definitively. So Iím not as anxious.
    In short, No.

    The long boring answer from my POV is:

    I don't think that it really is worth trying to predict what the next 20 years or so will look like. That doesn't mean that it isn't worth planning in the long term - it definitely is. It does mean that those plans will probably not all survive contact with reality and will have to change to a greater or lesser extent, sometimes because of what we do and sometimes because of the way the rest of the world moves.

    In retrospect we can read the signs a lot clearer and everything is better with hindsight. Could we have read the big global trends in 1997? The rise of China and globalized trade, yes we probably could have seen that one, a return towards a multipolar world, the signs weren't there but historically one power has never dominated for that long so we probably could have forseen it. The Arab Spring, Mass Migration the financial crisis..... it gets less clear.

    So I don't think anyone is going to be able to give you a graph over 20 years that basically says everything will be OK. Well they could do it but it won't be worth the paper it's written on.

    I am fairly certain that your son's future isn't going to be determined by lack of access to EU-funded research or an extra 1bn p/a in customs costs.

    Will the public purse be better or worse off? How the public purse fairs once we leave the EU is going to be determined largely by our policy decisions and not by the fact that we are not a member of the single market. If we elect a socialist government then we are likely to run a higher deficit in the short - medium term (5-10 years) and spend more on our public services, this is bound to increase the debt, with the promise of increases in productivity and smaller debt in the future when the 'investments' pay off. If we elect a conservative government then we will run a smaller deficit and spend less on our public services, this will also increase the debt but by less than the other lot and more than they (conservatives) wanted to, based on many years of history.

    Will our balance of trade change? I would expect us to reduce our imports, especially from the EU and to increase our exports. That may mean that our standard of living (measured in stuff we own) falls in the short term but I don't think we will ever run a positive balance of trade but I think it will be closer.

    Will the tax base collapse? I don't think so, although some big earners (Euro clearing) will be put at risk by our decision to leave the EU.

    Will your son have the same opportunities in education as you did and to get on the property ladder? I'm guessing his education opportunities will be different, and it is likely to cost more - because that's the way we have gone over the last 20 years. Housing, I'll bet it will continue to be in tight supply because we're a small island with lots of people.

    If you wanted to know what will happen over the next 20 years before making a decision then you would never decide to do anything, start a business, buy a house, vote etc. Understand the risks, make the decision and go. Stay flexible and adjust if you have to.

  8. #38
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    One things for sure you can't budget or predict for education, house building, healthcare or a street party if you don't know how many people are going to be here.
    Immigration was not my main motivation to vote leave by the way, but anyone that predicts there is more certainty by staying in the eu is deluded.

  9. #39

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    I also wonder why no one is making more of what will happen if we don't leave the EU, i.e more and more control from EU, paying more and more money to EU, less and less control over our laws, immigration etc. The EU is commited to become a single state, totally controlled from within. I don't believe many people in the UK want that. Even if it's difficult for a while, the only way is to leave, and leave now. We won't get another chance.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JRP39 View Post
    I also wonder why no one is making more of what will happen if we don't leave the EU, i.e more and more control from EU, paying more and more money to EU, less and less control over our laws, immigration etc. The EU is commited to become a single state, totally controlled from within. I don't believe many people in the UK want that. Even if it's difficult for a while, the only way is to leave, and leave now. We won't get another chance.
    Well said!

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