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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cirencester
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    3,036

    Default Weather. How can they get it so wrong?!

    A few months back I mentioned on a thread the fact that the seasonal forecast of a wet Autumn (a generally agreed position across all the forecasters), probably meant it was going to be the complete opposite. Oh, how right I was!

    Why is it they can't even get the general situation right, and in fact get it so dramatically wrong?

    I really hope the next week's forecast is as wrong and it lashes it down!!

    Moan over...

    Oscar.

  2. #2

    Default

    I guess Mother Nature does what she wants when she wants - typical of many a women Ive known

    It has taken me a lot f years to accept this in the context of salmon fishing, dry spells when I'd booked a weeks holiday, poor runs of fish when I was able to fish and good runs when I wasn't, the river in flood on days off etc.

    If ever a hobby required patience and persistence its salmon fishing.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Wiltshire
    Posts
    4,108

    Default

    Why is it wrong. Because it is horrendously complicated. Truly remarkably hard. The variables run in billions and interact in complex non linear ways. The Met Office run multiple thousand gallerys on a massively powerful Supercomputer to get what they get.

    24 hours is about 95+% accurate. Seasonal weather, almost impossible.

    Maybe a better question is should they carry on trying to bother. That though is like the 'why do we bother going to Pluto' question we had a few weeks back I guess. One good reason is to develop big data modelling that is increasingly used for an array of stuff. Computing power too. The latest computer they have pushed the boundary's. This years boundarys are iPads in 10 years etc

    Before anyone say it. Climate modelling isn't weather forecasting and weather isn't climate.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Makemland
    Posts
    1,989

    Default

    I watched a program about the Met office and they admitted they couldn,t give an accurate forcast more than 4 days in advance as the British isles has some of the most changeable weather in the world.
    When it comes to any long range forcasts, you might as well listen to "Mistic Meg".
    This is my fishing rod!.
    There are many like it but this one is mine.
    Without me,my rod is useless!.
    Without my rod,i am useless!.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    laurencekirk
    Posts
    21

    Default

    if its that difficult to forecast well in advance why do they give us a forecast? surely they should just say nothing, quite embarrassing for them really!!
    oh, oh, oh......... nah another troot!!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Northumberland
    Posts
    1,170

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ianthedon View Post
    if its that difficult to forecast well in advance why do they give us a forecast? surely they should just say nothing, quite embarrassing for them really!!
    They do the forecasts because their 'customers' want them.

    I also think they tend to overstate how much rain is likely because more people are upset if it rains more than forecast than when the opposite happens. Everybody remembers Michael Fish getting it spectacularly wrong. If he'd said we were going to catch a hurricane and it turned out to be a gentle breeze, I think we might have forgotten.

  7. #7

    Default

    Weather forecasting(and in particlar, 'accurate' forecasting) beyond 3 days is extremely difficult when it comes to the UK, for the simple reason that most of our weather comes sweeping across the Atlantic in the form of weather fronts(warm fronts, cold fronts, occluded fronts) and general low pressure systems. Unfortunately the track/passage and timescale of these weather systems can change beyond that predicted, why?...well as someone said already, mother nature. Once the forecast is inside 3 days then 'generally' the forecaster can predict a little more accurately the where and when of the particular weather front or pressure system. Anything beyond 3 days then the accuracy starts to deteriorate for the reasons mentioned. When trying to come up with a 'long range' forecast then its even more unpredictable....3 D modelling and a 'generalisation' is about all that can be given. Most of that forecast will come from the predicted position and movement of the jetstream, which is really what the huge influence is on our UK weather....and perhaps why we end up with 4 seasons in one day so to speak.
    Last edited by MikeCC; 11-10-2015 at 09:40 AM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    laurencekirk
    Posts
    21

    Default

    so forecasting more than 3 days in advance is guessing? would make more sense to say sorry folks we dont have an effin clue what its going to be like next week.
    oh, oh, oh......... nah another troot!!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    west london
    Posts
    627

    Default

    thats all interesting but theres a guy at oxford uni i think who charges 30k an he will forecast up too a year in advance ,much used by wealthy people planning weddings etc. he has been doing it for15 years an he has never got it wrong .so why is it not possible for the rest ,who i assume have more resourses ?

  10. #10

    Default

    If thats what you want to call it Ian. As i've said, its the accuracy of the forecast, with time, that will vary....why?...mother nature is fluid.
    Last edited by MikeCC; 11-10-2015 at 09:48 AM.

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